{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7H4GLQ558",
  "slug": "kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03",
  "question": "Will the 2026 midterm elections House popular vote margin of victory be X percentage points? (Generic ballot)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-midterms-2026",
    "house-elections",
    "popular-vote",
    "electoral-margins",
    "generic-ballot"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 2026 U.S. House national popular vote, commonly called the generic ballot. One Kalshi market prices the binary outcome of which party wins. Nine additional Kalshi markets price Democratic margin of victory across discrete percentage-point tiers from 0-2% through 16% and above. All markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination of certified 2026 election results.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KGB80P8KH0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.11
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KGB80P8KH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7H4GLQ558",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B50",
      "question": "Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?",
      "description": "Republicans win",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans win: Kalshi staff determination of the named party's performance in the referenced 2026 election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7H4GLQ558",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B1",
      "question": "Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 0 and 2%?",
      "description": "Democrats, 0 to 2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 0 to 2%: Kalshi staff determination of the named party's performance in the referenced 2026 election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T13:59:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X4B397T4J6",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B3",
      "question": "Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 2 and 4%?",
      "description": "Democrats, 2 to 4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 2 to 4%: Kalshi staff determination of the named party's performance in the referenced 2026 election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L5C53YW7X3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7H4GLQ558",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B5",
      "question": "Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?",
      "description": "Democrats, 4 to 6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 4 to 6%: Kalshi staff determination of the named party's performance in the referenced 2026 election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 4 and 6 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 54.6915,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
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      "tags": [
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        "house popular vote",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V6Q5LGS016",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7H4GLQ558",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B7",
      "question": "Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?",
      "description": "Democrats, 6 to 8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 6 to 8%: Kalshi staff determination of the named party's performance in the referenced 2026 election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-89TQJ35W27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7H4GLQ558",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B9",
      "question": "Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?",
      "description": "Democrats, 8 to 10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 8 to 10%: Kalshi staff determination of the named party's performance in the referenced 2026 election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DQLJ9K6VX4",
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      "question": "Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?",
      "description": "Democrats, 10 to 12%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2027-11-03T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T13:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4B44F5NVX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7H4GLQ558",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B13",
      "question": "Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 12 and 14%?",
      "description": "Democrats, 12 to 14%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "description": "Democrats, 16% and above",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
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}