{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-875HC8QSZ0",
  "slug": "kxhouserace-ca06-26",
  "question": "Will the winner of the California 6th Congressional District House election be determined by January 4, 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "california-politics",
    "2026-midterms",
    "electoral-prediction",
    "ca-06"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 2026 congressional race for California's 6th district. All three are Kalshi binary contracts: one prices incumbent Kevin Kiley's odds, one prices the Republican outcome, and one prices the Democratic outcome. The Republican and Kiley markets are structurally redundant if Kiley runs as the incumbent Republican. Resolution uses Kalshi staff determination referencing the Library of Congress, with settlement expected by January 4, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KY7S4KKWP3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.95,
    "implied_probability": 0.95
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QCMPB26MN0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-875HC8QSZ0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSERACE-CA06-26-KKIL",
      "question": "Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?",
      "description": "Kevin Kiley",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kevin Kiley: The named candidate's party affiliation resolves per Kalshi staff determination using the Library of Congress official record, with deadline January 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-04T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the House member sworn in for CA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Kevin Kiley Party, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Library of Congress",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 340.9398,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "ca-06",
        "election",
        "house",
        "kevin kiley",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KY7S4KKWP3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-875HC8QSZ0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSERACE-CA06-26-D",
      "question": "Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?",
      "description": "Richard Pan",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Richard Pan: The named candidate's party affiliation resolves per Kalshi staff determination using the Library of Congress official record, with deadline January 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-04T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the House member sworn in for CA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Library of Congress",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 10011.917,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "ca-06",
        "democrat",
        "election",
        "house",
        "richard pan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGFS084LF9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-875HC8QSZ0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSERACE-CA06-26-R",
      "question": "Will Republican win the House race for CA-06?",
      "description": "Republican party",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican party: The named candidate's party affiliation resolves per Kalshi staff determination using the Library of Congress official record, with deadline January 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-04T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the House member sworn in for CA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Library of Congress",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.007,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 175.78645,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "ca 06 house",
        "ca-06",
        "election",
        "house",
        "republican"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-875HC8QSZ0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}