{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
  "slug": "kxhouseturnout-26nov03",
  "question": "Will U.S. House turnout in the 2026 midterm elections exceed 50%?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-midterm-elections",
    "voter-turnout",
    "house-of-representatives",
    "political-participation",
    "election-2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track certified U.S. House vote totals in the November 2026 midterm elections. The canonical question prices a binary 50% turnout threshold; Kalshi prices absolute vote volume across nine discrete raw-count tiers from sub-90 million to 125 million and above. The structural difference: the canonical question asks whether turnout clears a rate threshold, while Kalshi prices the absolute count level. Kalshi staff determination resolves against the relevant election commission's certified figures, expected by March 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3FMS0XSDL1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.28,
    "implied_probability": 0.28
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HW6C6HZ1B1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-BELOW90",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be less than 90 million?",
      "description": "Less than 90 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Less than 90 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is 89,999,999 and below, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "officially certified results from the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.026,
      "implied_probability": 0.026,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 204.62936,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 89999999,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "elections",
        "house",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4LNYWFL9C9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-90",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 90 and 94.99 million?",
      "description": "90 to 94.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "90 to 94.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 90,000,000 and 94,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "officially certified results from the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the relevant election authority",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.03,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 180.5298,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 94999999,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "house",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "turnout"
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          "bucket": null,
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        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8TF57G1834",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-95",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 95 and 99.99 million?",
      "description": "95 to 99.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "95 to 99.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 95,000,000 and 99,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "officially certified results from the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "the relevant election authority",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.023,
      "implied_probability": 0.023,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 150.13273,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 99999999,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "elections",
        "house",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XP0K6NDTB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-100",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 100 and 104.99 million?",
      "description": "100 to 104.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "100 to 104.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 100,000,000 and 104,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "officially certified results from the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "the relevant election authority",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
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      },
      "last_price": 0.034,
      "implied_probability": 0.034,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 157.56722000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 104999999,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "elections",
        "house",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G87VVVPK61",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-105",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 105 and 109.99 million?",
      "description": "105 to 109.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "105 to 109.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 105,000,000 and 109,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "officially certified results from the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
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      "volume_total_usd": 38.3748,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "elections",
        "house",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KZ0SB9F1L2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-110",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 110 and 114.99 million?",
      "description": "110 to 114.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "110 to 114.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 110,000,000 and 114,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "officially certified results from the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "the relevant election authority",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.13,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 997.4926,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 114999999,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "elections",
        "house",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WL33824LD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-115",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 115 and 119.99 million?",
      "description": "115 to 119.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "115 to 119.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 115,000,000 and 119,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "officially certified results from the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the relevant election authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "the relevant election authority",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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