{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
  "slug": "kxhouseturnout-26nov03",
  "question": "Will U.S. House turnout in the 2026 midterm elections exceed 50%?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "voter-turnout",
    "midterm-elections",
    "2026-politics",
    "election-participation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track certified total voter turnout across all 2026 U.S. House races. Kalshi structures the event as nine discrete 5-million-voter tiers, spanning below 90 million to 125 million and above. Together the tiers form a full probability distribution over the turnout range. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using the relevant election commission's certified figures, expected by March 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3FMS0XSDL1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.22,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HW6C6HZ1B1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-BELOW90",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be less than 90 million?",
      "description": "Less than 90 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Less than 90 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXHOUSETURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is 89,999,999 and below, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T02:00:28.492Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 164.3132,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 89999999,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "elections",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "midterms",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4LNYWFL9C9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-90",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 90 and 94.99 million?",
      "description": "90 to 94.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "90 to 94.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXHOUSETURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 90,000,000 and 94,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 249.37691999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 94999999,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "elections",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "midterms",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8TF57G1834",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-95",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 95 and 99.99 million?",
      "description": "95 to 99.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "95 to 99.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXHOUSETURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 95,000,000 and 99,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T05:00:35.172Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 267.8144,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 99999999,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "elections",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "midterms",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XP0K6NDTB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-100",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 100 and 104.99 million?",
      "description": "100 to 104.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "100 to 104.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXHOUSETURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 100,000,000 and 104,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.062,
      "implied_probability": 0.062,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 327.20995999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 104999999,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "elections",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "midterms",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "permitted_category": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G87VVVPK61",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-105",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 105 and 109.99 million?",
      "description": "105 to 109.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "105 to 109.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXHOUSETURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 105,000,000 and 109,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.065,
      "implied_probability": 0.065,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.31395,
      "volume_total_usd": 56.03975,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 109999999,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "elections",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "midterms",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KZ0SB9F1L2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-110",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 110 and 114.99 million?",
      "description": "110 to 114.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "110 to 114.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXHOUSETURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 110,000,000 and 114,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T19:00:47.588Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.04,
      "volume_total_usd": 1670.5978000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 114999999,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "elections",
        "house midterm turnout",
        "midterms",
        "turnout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WL33824LD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-115",
      "question": "Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 115 and 119.99 million?",
      "description": "115 to 119.99 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "115 to 119.99 million: The relevant election commission's certified official U.S. House turnout figure, released by March 31, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXHOUSETURNOUT, notice id VOTECOUNT-bulk-2026-04-22):\n**Important information**: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is between 115,000,000 and 119,999,999, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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