{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PS1K3XYR28",
  "slug": "kxhousingstart-26jun16",
  "question": "Will US housing starts be released for May 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      1.38
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1.38,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.4,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.43,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.45,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.48,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.52,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.55,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-housing",
    "economic-data",
    "may-2026",
    "construction-starts",
    "quantitative-threshold"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the U.S. Census Bureau's monthly housing starts figure for May 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds, ranging from 1.375M to 1.550M in 25,000-unit increments. The implied probability curve across strikes reveals where the market prices the modal outcome. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract against the Census Bureau release due by June 16, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-42WKY8H7Y8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-42WKY8H7Y8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PS1K3XYR28",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSINGSTART-26JUN16-T1.375",
      "question": "Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.375M?",
      "description": "Above 1.375M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.375M: The U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Starts report for May 2026, released by June 16, 2026, determines whether the listed outcome occurred, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US housing starts for May 2026 is above 1.375M, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe value is the \"Housing Starts\" figure reported in the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction release for May 2026 (as displayed on Trading Economics). If the May 2026 release is delayed or rescheduled, the market will resolve based on the first official publication of the May 2026 Housing Starts value.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Trading Economics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trading Economics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 37.09,
      "volume_total_usd": 9631.23,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.38,
      "question_id": "CMX-ABF598A612",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "housing",
        "may-2026",
        "us housing starts"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PX3JDZP9D2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PS1K3XYR28",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSINGSTART-26JUN16-T1.400",
      "question": "Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.400M?",
      "description": "Above 1.400M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.400M: The U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Starts report for May 2026, released by June 16, 2026, determines whether the listed outcome occurred, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US housing starts for May 2026 is above 1.400M, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe value is the \"Housing Starts\" figure reported in the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction release for May 2026 (as displayed on Trading Economics). If the May 2026 release is delayed or rescheduled, the market will resolve based on the first official publication of the May 2026 Housing Starts value.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Trading Economics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trading Economics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 748.05,
      "volume_total_usd": 19562.74,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-248874C5A1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "housing",
        "may-2026",
        "us housing starts"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QP6FF3K6J7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PS1K3XYR28",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSINGSTART-26JUN16-T1.425",
      "question": "Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.425M?",
      "description": "Above 1.425M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.425M: The U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Starts report for May 2026, released by June 16, 2026, determines whether the listed outcome occurred, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US housing starts for May 2026 is above 1.425M, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe value is the \"Housing Starts\" figure reported in the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction release for May 2026 (as displayed on Trading Economics). If the May 2026 release is delayed or rescheduled, the market will resolve based on the first official publication of the May 2026 Housing Starts value.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Trading Economics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trading Economics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 75.89,
      "volume_total_usd": 3446.09,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.43,
      "question_id": "CMX-4ABBEE76FF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "housing",
        "may-2026",
        "us housing starts"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GBT1HH2103",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PS1K3XYR28",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSINGSTART-26JUN16-T1.450",
      "question": "Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.450M?",
      "description": "Above 1.450M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.450M: The U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Starts report for May 2026, released by June 16, 2026, determines whether the listed outcome occurred, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US housing starts for May 2026 is above 1.450M, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe value is the \"Housing Starts\" figure reported in the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction release for May 2026 (as displayed on Trading Economics). If the May 2026 release is delayed or rescheduled, the market will resolve based on the first official publication of the May 2026 Housing Starts value.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Trading Economics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trading Economics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 62.71,
      "volume_total_usd": 1537.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.45,
      "question_id": "CMX-CCEBCFB9A0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "housing",
        "may-2026",
        "us housing starts"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NFVF479259",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PS1K3XYR28",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSINGSTART-26JUN16-T1.475",
      "question": "Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.475M?",
      "description": "Above 1.475M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.475M: The U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Starts report for May 2026, released by June 16, 2026, determines whether the listed outcome occurred, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US housing starts for May 2026 is above 1.475M, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe value is the \"Housing Starts\" figure reported in the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction release for May 2026 (as displayed on Trading Economics). If the May 2026 release is delayed or rescheduled, the market will resolve based on the first official publication of the May 2026 Housing Starts value.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Trading Economics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trading Economics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.38,
      "volume_total_usd": 246.41,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.48,
      "question_id": "CMX-14D6A552CA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "housing",
        "may-2026",
        "us housing starts"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NGVJ7C4J48",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PS1K3XYR28",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSINGSTART-26JUN16-T1.500",
      "question": "Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.500M?",
      "description": "Above 1.500M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.500M: The U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Starts report for May 2026, released by June 16, 2026, determines whether the listed outcome occurred, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US housing starts for May 2026 is above 1.500M, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe value is the \"Housing Starts\" figure reported in the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction release for May 2026 (as displayed on Trading Economics). If the May 2026 release is delayed or rescheduled, the market will resolve based on the first official publication of the May 2026 Housing Starts value.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Trading Economics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trading Economics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 43.65,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-2B7110B85E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "housing",
        "may-2026",
        "us housing starts"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QTBRTYD2Y7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PS1K3XYR28",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSINGSTART-26JUN16-T1.525",
      "question": "Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.525M?",
      "description": "Above 1.525M",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.525M: The U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Starts report for May 2026, released by June 16, 2026, determines whether the listed outcome occurred, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If US housing starts for May 2026 is above 1.525M, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe value is the \"Housing Starts\" figure reported in the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction release for May 2026 (as displayed on Trading Economics). If the May 2026 release is delayed or rescheduled, the market will resolve based on the first official publication of the May 2026 Housing Starts value.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Trading Economics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trading Economics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 34.99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.52,
      "question_id": "CMX-FF5C9FD152",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "housing",
        "may-2026",
        "us housing starts"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 34.32,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.55,
      "question_id": "CMX-2C3A4626D2",
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            "under_min_maturity"
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        }
      ]
    }
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NFVF479259",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PS1K3XYR28",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}