{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
  "slug": "kxhurctotmaj-26dec01",
  "question": "How many major Atlantic hurricanes will occur in 2026?",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "atlantic-hurricanes",
    "weather-forecasting",
    "2026",
    "seasonal-prediction",
    "climate-events"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the count of major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, as classified by NOAA's National Hurricane Center. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds, each asking whether the final count exceeds a given integer from 0 through 7. Reading across strikes prices an implied probability distribution over the full count range. All markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the NHC's official seasonal record, closing December 2, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HGR6RXZXS1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.31,
    "implied_probability": 0.31
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WQ1SJW3YF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T0",
      "question": "Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center classification of major Atlantic hurricanes during 2026 resolves this market on December 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 0 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.74,
      "implied_probability": 0.74,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1578.1018000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic major hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FJ9NP1XNG2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T1",
      "question": "Will there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center classification of major Atlantic hurricanes during 2026 resolves this market on December 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 1 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.45,
      "implied_probability": 0.45,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.5675,
      "volume_total_usd": 1314.2925,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic major hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGR6RXZXS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T2",
      "question": "Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center classification of major Atlantic hurricanes during 2026 resolves this market on December 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 2 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.31,
      "implied_probability": 0.31,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.8177,
      "volume_total_usd": 5858.7241,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic major hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3HVR22PFW2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T3",
      "question": "Will there be more than 3 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center classification of major Atlantic hurricanes during 2026 resolves this market on December 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 3 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.2784999999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 2492.1918,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic major hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PYNWYP7DS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T4",
      "question": "Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center classification of major Atlantic hurricanes during 2026 resolves this market on December 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 4 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.2772,
      "volume_total_usd": 1115.5539999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic major hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "review",
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          "bucket": null,
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VXDFQ4WLP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T5",
      "question": "Will there be more than 5 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center classification of major Atlantic hurricanes during 2026 resolves this market on December 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 5 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 396.543,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic major hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L13FYNX5W4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T6",
      "question": "Will there be more than 6 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 6",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center classification of major Atlantic hurricanes during 2026 resolves this market on December 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 6 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.33299999999999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 71.58840000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic major hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
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            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y088YNNXW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T7",
      "question": "Will there be more than 7 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 7",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 7: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center classification of major Atlantic hurricanes during 2026 resolves this market on December 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 7 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 268.8744,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic major hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-J6RMPSZY42",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}