{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LMCP7ZD299",
  "slug": "kximfrecess-27",
  "question": "Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "imf-declaration",
    "global-recession",
    "economic-forecast",
    "macroeconomic-indicator",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether the International Monetary Fund officially declares a global recession before January 1, 2027. Kalshi prices a binary outcome resolved via Kalshi staff determination against IMF official statements or reports. Only one platform structures this market, so no cross-platform contrast exists. Resolution hinges on an explicit IMF declaration, not implied or informal commentary from Fund economists.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-P5124CTC44",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.18
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P5124CTC44",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LMCP7ZD299",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIMFRECESS-27",
      "question": "Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "International Monetary Fund official statements or reports on global recession declaration through December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the International Monetary Fund declares the world is in recession before 2027 in one of their World Economic Outlook reports, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "International Monetary Fund",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/rms_rep.aspx",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "International Monetary Fund",
            "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/rms_rep.aspx",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Economic Outlook reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "International Monetary Fund",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.396,
      "volume_total_usd": 9401.867999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C131233CF1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "global economy",
        "imf",
        "imf global recession",
        "recession"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LMCP7ZD299",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}