{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0RZ3HRXJN8",
  "slug": "kxinxmaxy-01jan2027",
  "question": "S&P 500 maximum value, January 1, 2027",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      7800,
      8000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 7200,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7400,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7600,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7800,
        "prob": 73
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      {
        "threshold": 8000,
        "prob": 49
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      {
        "threshold": 8200,
        "prob": 22
      },
      {
        "threshold": 8400,
        "prob": 21
      },
      {
        "threshold": 8600,
        "prob": 13
      },
      {
        "threshold": 8800,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 9000,
        "prob": 7
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "sp500",
    "equity-index",
    "price-target",
    "2026",
    "us-markets"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the S&P 500's maximum closing level through January 1, 2027. Each Kalshi contract prices a discrete strike threshold, from 7,200 to 9,000, structured as binary YES/NO rungs. The implied distribution of the index peak can be read from the spread between adjacent strikes. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract using S&P Dow Jones Indices as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6V3FQP93H8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.391,
    "implied_probability": 0.391
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y9TGLPF4Q5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0RZ3HRXJN8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-7199.99",
      "question": "Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7199.99 by Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "7,200 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "7,200 or above: S&P 500 closing value on January 1, 2027, per S&P Dow Jones Indices; resolves YES if the index reaches the specified threshold by that date.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-08T14:47:19Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "loose",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.998,
      "implied_probability": 0.998,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 451109.41,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7200,
      "question_id": "CMX-454DF3D6D5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500",
        "equity-index",
        "sp500",
        "us-equities"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "reasons": [],
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5HBH5YKJJ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0RZ3HRXJN8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-7399.99",
      "question": "Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7399.99 by Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "7,400 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "7,400 or above: S&P 500 closing value on January 1, 2027, per S&P Dow Jones Indices; resolves YES if the index reaches the specified threshold by that date.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-15T00:23:35Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7399.99, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
        "sources": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 7400,
      "question_id": "CMX-6E78F5D2E3",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-YB4PXZRQ41",
          "price": 0.999
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      ],
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        "equity-index",
        "sp500",
        "us-equities"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PNWRK8VJ19",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0RZ3HRXJN8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-7599.99",
      "question": "Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7599.99 by Jan 1, 2027?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "7,600 or above: S&P 500 closing value on January 1, 2027, per S&P Dow Jones Indices; resolves YES if the index reaches the specified threshold by that date.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-02T18:14:06Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.995,
      "implied_probability": 0.995,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 230933.49,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7600,
      "question_id": "CMX-7187739599",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-M7TZVY2086",
          "price": 0.999
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      ],
      "tags": [
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        "equity-index",
        "sp500",
        "us-equities"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L4LK5ZG9C6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0RZ3HRXJN8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-7799.99",
      "question": "Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7799.99 by Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "7,800 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "7,800 or above: S&P 500 closing value on January 1, 2027, per S&P Dow Jones Indices; resolves YES if the index reaches the specified threshold by that date.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7799.99, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": "loose",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.313,
      "implied_probability": 0.313,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7800,
      "question_id": "CMX-8594AA3DA6",
      "also_on": [
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          "price": 0.75
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        "equity-index",
        "sp500",
        "us-equities"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6V3FQP93H8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0RZ3HRXJN8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-7999.99",
      "question": "Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7999.99 by Jan 1, 2027?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "8,000 or above: S&P 500 closing value on January 1, 2027, per S&P Dow Jones Indices; resolves YES if the index reaches the specified threshold by that date.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
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        "sources": [
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      "question_id": "CMX-0D35DE32D0",
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      "question": "Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8199.99 by Jan 1, 2027?",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "8,200 or above: S&P 500 closing value on January 1, 2027, per S&P Dow Jones Indices; resolves YES if the index reaches the specified threshold by that date.",
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      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
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      "question_id": "CMX-E10BA6DC0B",
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        "sp500",
        "us-equities"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0RZ3HRXJN8",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8399.99",
      "question": "Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8399.99 by Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "8,400 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "8,400 or above: S&P 500 closing value on January 1, 2027, per S&P Dow Jones Indices; resolves YES if the index reaches the specified threshold by that date.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 8399.99, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
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      "question_id": "CMX-7BD9D084EE",
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      "tags": [
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8599.99 by Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "8,600 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "8,600 or above: S&P 500 closing value on January 1, 2027, per S&P Dow Jones Indices; resolves YES if the index reaches the specified threshold by that date.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 8599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
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      "question_id": "CMX-6303FA7DD9",
      "also_on": [
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      "question_id": "CMX-8FE2E39D45",
      "also_on": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PNWRK8VJ19",
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      "resolved_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.995,
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
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    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}