{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BJPG2Z0CP5",
  "slug": "kxinxvsbtc-26dec31",
  "question": "Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. BTC?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "sp500-vs-btc",
    "annual-return-comparison",
    "cryptocurrency-equity",
    "performance-binary",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks the 2026 annual total-return competition between the S&P 500 Total Return Index and Bitcoin. Both markets are listed on Kalshi and are structurally mirror-image binaries: one prices an S&P 500 outperformance outcome, the other prices a BTC outperformance outcome. Together they form a complementary pair; implied probabilities should sum near 100%, excluding any tie scenario. Resolution is via Kalshi staff determination, referencing S&P Dow Jones Indices data for the index leg and exchange-sourced BTC price data for the crypto leg.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-852NZ28W68",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.92,
    "implied_probability": 0.92
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-852NZ28W68",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BJPG2Z0CP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXINXVSBTC-26DEC31-INXTR",
      "question": "Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform BTC?",
      "description": "S&P 500 Total Return Index",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "S&P 500 Total Return Index: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If  S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above BTC for the week of 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd  then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPercent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "loose",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 233.59720000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 10429.028,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C0FDB8EC6F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 total return",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "sp500",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W7BT85YP35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BJPG2Z0CP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXINXVSBTC-26DEC31-BTC",
      "question": "Will BTC outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index?",
      "description": "BTC",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "BTC: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If BTC performs above S&P 500 Total Return Index for the week of 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd  then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPercent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "loose",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24.971999999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 921.3384,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2B4E170446",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "crypto",
        "digital-asset"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BJPG2Z0CP5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}