{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-19C8FVK4P0",
  "slug": "kxinxvsgold-26dec31",
  "question": "Will the S&P 500 total return outperform gold's annual return by the settlement date?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "sp500-vs-gold",
    "asset-class-comparison",
    "annual-return",
    "equity-vs-commodity",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks the 2026 annual return comparison between the S&P 500 Total Return Index and gold. Both markets are listed on Kalshi and structured as mirror-image binaries: one asks whether equities outperform gold, the other whether gold outperforms equities. Together they price the directional outcome of the same underlying spread. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination, referencing S&P Dow Jones Indices for the total return figure and spot gold benchmarks for the commodity leg.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-89KJ5K3SQ1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.85,
    "implied_probability": 0.85
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-89KJ5K3SQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-19C8FVK4P0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXINXVSGOLD-26DEC31-INXTR",
      "question": "Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform Gold?",
      "description": "S&P 500 Total Return Index",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "S&P 500 Total Return Index: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above Gold for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPercent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "loose",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15.963000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 9164.411,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A6537848FF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 total return",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q6BLPNW666",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-19C8FVK4P0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXINXVSGOLD-26DEC31-GOLD",
      "question": "Will Gold outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index?",
      "description": "Gold",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gold: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Gold performs above S&P 500 Total Return Index for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPercent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "loose",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 1806.4982,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0DD8C25F49",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "gold",
        "precious metal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "financial_indicators",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-19C8FVK4P0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}