{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SHLVFDC4G7",
  "slug": "kxipoanduril",
  "question": "Will Anduril officially announce an IPO?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "anduril",
    "ipo",
    "defense-tech",
    "corporate-announcements",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track when Anduril Industries will officially announce an IPO date, as reported by major financial news outlets. Kalshi structures this as a cumulative binary ladder, with thirteen sequential monthly strike thresholds running from June 2026 through June 2027. Each tier resolves YES if the announcement precedes that month's deadline, allowing traders to isolate probability mass across specific windows. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination, with no secondary oracle mechanism involved.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C2GPVJ2T29",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.2,
    "implied_probability": 0.2,
    "as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-03VD1T7RJ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SHLVFDC4G7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPOANDURIL-26JUN01",
      "question": "When will Anduril IPO?",
      "description": "Before Jun 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jun 1, 2026: The named company's IPO date, as reported by major financial news outlets, resolves before the deadline of June 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anduril confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jun 1, 2026.",
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        "source": "the New York Times",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": "https://www.ft.com",
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            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "BBC",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
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      "volume_total_usd": 48.73,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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      "question": "When will Anduril IPO?",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If Anduril confirms an IPO before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jul 1, 2026.",
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            "name": "Reuters",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
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      "volume_total_usd": 19.84,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "anduril",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5S8YLJ1WH3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SHLVFDC4G7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPOANDURIL-26AUG01",
      "question": "When will Anduril IPO?",
      "description": "Before Aug 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 1, 2026: The named company's IPO date, as reported by major financial news outlets, resolves before the deadline of June 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anduril confirms an IPO before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Aug 1, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "BBC",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 20.69,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z3RZJ70QS5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SHLVFDC4G7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPOANDURIL-26SEP01",
      "question": "When will Anduril IPO?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: The named company's IPO date, as reported by major financial news outlets, resolves before the deadline of June 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anduril confirms an IPO before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Sep 1, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.03,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6FVZ8GKKY0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SHLVFDC4G7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPOANDURIL-26OCT01",
      "question": "When will Anduril IPO?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Before Oct 1, 2026: The named company's IPO date, as reported by major financial news outlets, resolves before the deadline of June 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anduril confirms an IPO before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Oct 1, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-79NTBDQ6S5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SHLVFDC4G7",
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      "question": "When will Anduril IPO?",
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      "close_at": "2026-11-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anduril confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Nov 1, 2026.",
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