{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5GDXT0WYF3",
  "slug": "kxirscollect-26",
  "question": "Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-tax-revenue",
    "irs-collections",
    "year-over-year-comparison",
    "economic-forecasting",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether IRS total tax collections in 2026 will exceed 2025 levels. The IRS Data Book, published by the Internal Revenue Service, is the authoritative resolution source. Kalshi staff determination applies, drawing directly from that annual publication. The market closes December 31, 2027, allowing time for final IRS Data Book figures to be released.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-H7DR7Y8HM5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.78,
    "implied_probability": 0.78
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H7DR7Y8HM5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5GDXT0WYF3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIRSCOLLECT-26",
      "question": "Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?",
      "description": "For tax year 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Internal Revenue Service publishes annual tax collection data in its Data Book, with 2026 collections compared to 2025 collections determining resolution by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the IRS collects more tax revenue in 2026 than 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "IRS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-irs-data-book",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "IRS",
            "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-irs-data-book",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IRS",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9812.493600000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5058425829",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "irs",
        "irs total tax",
        "revenue",
        "tax",
        "us-fiscal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5GDXT0WYF3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}