{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-04Z803HFX1",
  "slug": "kxismpmi-26jul",
  "question": "Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI in July be above 50?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "ism-manufacturing-pmi",
    "economic-indicators",
    "us-manufacturing",
    "july-2026",
    "pmi-index"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI reading for July 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eight strike thresholds, from at least 51 through at least 58. Each binary contract prices the probability the index clears that discrete level. Kalshi staff determination resolves all contracts against the ISM publication due by September 2, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6MHYYBSH07",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.57,
    "implied_probability": 0.57
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RN4SFTNBM8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-04Z803HFX1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISMPMI-26JUL-51",
      "question": "ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026?",
      "description": "At least 51",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 51: ISM Report on Business publishes the Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 by September 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the reading meets the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-03T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 51, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ISM",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ISM",
            "url": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ISM",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.81,
      "implied_probability": 0.81,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 51,
      "question_id": "CMX-928B7862DE",
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      "tags": [
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        "ism",
        "ism manufacturing pmi",
        "manufacturing",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N0GNDDGSD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-04Z803HFX1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISMPMI-26JUL-52",
      "question": "ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026?",
      "description": "At least 52",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 52: ISM Report on Business publishes the Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 by September 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the reading meets the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-03T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 52, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ISM",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/",
        "sources": [
          {
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        "source_of_record": "ISM",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.82,
      "implied_probability": 0.82,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1654.5467999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 52,
      "question_id": "CMX-2BAE2BC629",
      "also_on": null,
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        "economic-indicator",
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        "ism manufacturing pmi",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6MHYYBSH07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-04Z803HFX1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISMPMI-26JUL-53",
      "question": "ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026?",
      "description": "At least 53",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 53: ISM Report on Business publishes the Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 by September 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the reading meets the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-03T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 53, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "ISM",
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      "last_price": 0.57,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 53,
      "question_id": "CMX-5158E63A1F",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TRMDPBTCD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-04Z803HFX1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISMPMI-26JUL-54",
      "question": "ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026?",
      "description": "At least 54",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 54: ISM Report on Business publishes the Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 by September 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the reading meets the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-03T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 54, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.45,
      "implied_probability": 0.45,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": "CMX-A598B0F8EB",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T5KJ7J35W1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-04Z803HFX1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISMPMI-26JUL-55",
      "question": "ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026?",
      "description": "At least 55",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 55: ISM Report on Business publishes the Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 by September 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the reading meets the threshold.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 55, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.71,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 7.1,
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      "question_id": "CMX-52C008BC41",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VCKN0W9TC6",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXISMPMI-26JUL-56",
      "question": "ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026?",
      "description": "At least 56",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "At least 56: ISM Report on Business publishes the Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 by September 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the reading meets the threshold.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-43038JJ9Y8",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXISMPMI-26JUL-57",
      "question": "ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026?",
      "description": "At least 57",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "At least 57: ISM Report on Business publishes the Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 by September 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the reading meets the threshold.",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-04Z803HFX1",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXISMPMI-26JUL-58",
      "question": "ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026?",
      "description": "At least 58",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "At least 58: ISM Report on Business publishes the Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 by September 2, 2026; Kalshi staff determines whether the reading meets the threshold.",
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}