{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
  "slug": "kxisraelgovt-28jan01",
  "question": "Will Blue and White be a part of the next government in Israel?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "israel-politics",
    "government-formation",
    "coalition-building",
    "middle-east",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which political parties will join Israel's next governing coalition. Each of the 15 Kalshi contracts isolates a single party, pricing a binary inclusion outcome. All markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination against official coalition formation results. Resolution is set for January 2028.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-T3B33PJPS6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.13,
    "implied_probability": 0.13
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W36PQXLVL9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-LIK",
      "question": "Will Likud be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Likud",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Likud: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Likud make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "country",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.42,
      "implied_probability": 0.42,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 42.52,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "government",
        "israel",
        "likud",
        "party",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWY8S1XZ48",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-YAS",
      "question": "Will Yashar be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Yashar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Yashar: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Yashar make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "country",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 696.86,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics",
        "yashar"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WPC369MVW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-TOG",
      "question": "Will Together be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Together",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Together: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Together make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "country",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.64,
      "implied_probability": 0.64,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 832.65,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics",
        "together"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RSBWYNPVF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-DEM",
      "question": "Will The Democrats be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "The Democrats",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Democrats: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes The Democrats make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "country",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.47,
      "implied_probability": 0.47,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 38.54,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democrats",
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-27V4FPWC23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-YIS",
      "question": "Will Yisrael Beiteinu be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Yisrael Beiteinu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Yisrael Beiteinu: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Yisrael Beiteinu make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 46.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics",
        "yisrael beiteinu"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K5N3S8S8S3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-SHA",
      "question": "Will Shas be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Shas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Shas: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Shas make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 27.36,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics",
        "shas"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0VZ0R4V6W2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-UTJ",
      "question": "Will United Torah Judaism be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "United Torah Judaism",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "United Torah Judaism: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes United Torah Judaism make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "country",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.26,
      "implied_probability": 0.26,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 412.63,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics",
        "united torah judaism"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2CHDFX9QM1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-OYEH",
      "question": "Will Otzma Yehudit be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Otzma Yehudit",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Otzma Yehudit: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Otzma Yehudit make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
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      "volume_total_usd": 51.79,
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      "tags": [
        "government",
        "israel",
        "otzma yehudit",
        "party",
        "politics"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XPRW2H2Z97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-RZP",
      "question": "Will Religious Zionist Party be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Religious Zionist Party",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Religious Zionist Party: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Religious Zionist Party make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "country",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.26,
      "implied_probability": 0.26,
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      "volume_total_usd": 484,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics",
        "religious zionist party"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CJX37VSRB8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-RAAM",
      "question": "Will Ra’am be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Ra’am",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ra’am: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Ra’am make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 776.93,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics",
        "ra am"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NVP6TYC9T2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-ROI",
      "question": "Will Foundations of Israel be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Foundations of Israel",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Foundations of Israel: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Foundations of Israel make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.34,
      "implied_probability": 0.34,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 119.05,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
        "foundations israel",
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T3B33PJPS6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-BW",
      "question": "Will Blue and White be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Blue and White",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Blue and White: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Blue and White make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "country",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1226.85,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
        "blue and white",
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CNLNS8Z3N4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-NOAM",
      "question": "Will Noam be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Noam",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Noam: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Noam make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "country",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 396.29,
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      "tags": [
        "government",
        "israel",
        "noam",
        "party",
        "politics"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RZ4G3BJXG2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-HTAA",
      "question": "Will Hadash–Ta’al be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Hadash–Ta’al",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hadash–Ta’al: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Hadash–Ta’al make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "country",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 592.13,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "government",
        "hadash ta al",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YBX1GM5CS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-BAL",
      "question": "Will Balad be a part of the next government in Israel?",
      "description": "Balad",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Balad: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named political party is included in the governing coalition, resolved by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a coalition that includes Balad make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nA party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). \n\nAdditionally,\nA “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).\nIf, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.\n\nAdditional clarification(s): \nDissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in parties dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.\nLegal name change: If a party named in parties undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in parties.\nJoint electoral list: If a party named in parties contests the election as part of a joint electoral list, alliance, or umbrella grouping:\n  If the named party continues to exist as a distinct, separately identifiable constituent party under the umbrella list (rather than having been subsumed into it), the named party remains eligible to count toward the Payout Criterion, provided that a qualifying government officeholder (i.e., a minister, cabinet-level appointee, or equivalent executive role holder) represents, or is formally and publicly affiliated with, that named party specifically, as opposed to the umbrella list generically or another constituent party.\n  If the joint list instead constitutes a newly consolidated party that legally replaces its constituent predecessors (such that the predecessor parties cease to exist as distinct legal or political entities), the predecessor parties named in parties do not count. Only the new consolidated party may count toward the Payout Criterion, and only if it is separately specified in parties or qualifies as a legal successor under the above legal name change clarification.\n\nClarification (08/03/26): To clarify, this event will resolve based on the composition of the first government formed after the election upon receiving the Knesset’s confidence. Each qualifying officeholder who contested the election will be attributed to the registered party identified for that person in the candidate list approved by Israel’s Central Elections Committee. An officeholder who did not contest the election will be attributed to the registered party expressly identified for that person in official government-formation records or, if those records are silent, a formal coalition agreement. A registered-party strike will resolve Yes if a qualifying officeholder is attributed to that party. A joint-list or alliance strike will resolve Yes if the named grouping contested the election jointly and a qualifying officeholder is attributed to any registered party that submitted the list. A candidate who formally withdraws from a list before the election will be treated as not having contested the election. If the named grouping does not contest the election, former constituents running separately will not count toward its strike. A post-election faction split will not alter a candidate’s CEC-recorded affiliation. Legal party mergers, dissolutions, and name changes remain governed by the existing rules.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "country",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "country",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 55.9,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "balad",
        "government",
        "israel",
        "party",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Z3SNG6NMQ8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}