{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4DL2W7JY6",
  "slug": "kxkrakenbankpublic-27jan01",
  "question": "Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "kraken-ipo",
    "banking-underwriting",
    "crypto-finance",
    "2027",
    "investment-banks"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which major bank will serve as lead underwriter for Kraken's IPO before January 1, 2027. Five discrete binary contracts cover Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup separately. Each resolves via Kalshi staff determination referencing Fox Business reporting. Only one bank can lead the offering, so these contracts are mutually constraining.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TFKF4MGK35",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.23,
    "implied_probability": 0.23
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5X1JJ5YD46",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4DL2W7JY6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-GS",
      "question": "Will Goldman Sachs take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Goldman Sachs",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Goldman Sachs: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox Business reporting will resolve whether the listed company takes the referenced entity public by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Goldman Sachs serves as a lead underwriter for Kraken's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe bank must serve as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator as documented in SEC filings (Form S-1 or final prospectus) or official announcements. Joint book-running managers qualify. Direct listings, SPAC mergers, secondary offerings, and private placements do not qualify. If the bank merges with another institution, the surviving entity under any name qualifies. For dual listings, only the U.S. portion is considered. Even if the IPO is later shelved, the market resolves Yes based on the announcement of the underwriting relationship.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox Business",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox Business",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "company",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EDGAR database",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.1,
      "volume_total_usd": 1464.0355,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-054B10E45D",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-FTFNM9G700",
          "price": 0.34
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "bank",
        "goldman sachs",
        "ipo",
        "kraken"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KD7Q8VGXX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4DL2W7JY6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-MS",
      "question": "Will Morgan Stanley take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Morgan Stanley",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Morgan Stanley: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox Business reporting will resolve whether the listed company takes the referenced entity public by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Morgan Stanley serves as a lead underwriter for Kraken's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe bank must serve as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator as documented in SEC filings (Form S-1 or final prospectus) or official announcements. Joint book-running managers qualify. Direct listings, SPAC mergers, secondary offerings, and private placements do not qualify. If the bank merges with another institution, the surviving entity under any name qualifies. For dual listings, only the U.S. portion is considered. Even if the IPO is later shelved, the market resolves Yes based on the announcement of the underwriting relationship.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox Business",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox Business",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "company",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "EDGAR database",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1452.3078,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-054B10E45D",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-FTFNM9G700",
          "price": 0.34
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "bank",
        "ipo",
        "kraken",
        "morgan stanley"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5GQMYW9P06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4DL2W7JY6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-JPM",
      "question": "Will JPMorgan Chase take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "JPMorgan Chase",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "JPMorgan Chase: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox Business reporting will resolve whether the listed company takes the referenced entity public by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If JPMorgan Chase serves as a lead underwriter for Kraken's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe bank must serve as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator as documented in SEC filings (Form S-1 or final prospectus) or official announcements. Joint book-running managers qualify. Direct listings, SPAC mergers, secondary offerings, and private placements do not qualify. If the bank merges with another institution, the surviving entity under any name qualifies. For dual listings, only the U.S. portion is considered. Even if the IPO is later shelved, the market resolves Yes based on the announcement of the underwriting relationship.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox Business",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox Business",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "company",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "EDGAR database",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "Reuters",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2819.304,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-054B10E45D",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-FTFNM9G700",
          "price": 0.34
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "bank",
        "ipo",
        "jpmorgan chase",
        "kraken"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JYPQKQQR35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4DL2W7JY6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-BOA",
      "question": "Will Bank of America take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Bank of America",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bank of America: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox Business reporting will resolve whether the listed company takes the referenced entity public by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Bank of America serves as a lead underwriter for Kraken's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe bank must serve as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator as documented in SEC filings (Form S-1 or final prospectus) or official announcements. Joint book-running managers qualify. Direct listings, SPAC mergers, secondary offerings, and private placements do not qualify. If the bank merges with another institution, the surviving entity under any name qualifies. For dual listings, only the U.S. portion is considered. Even if the IPO is later shelved, the market resolves Yes based on the announcement of the underwriting relationship.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox Business",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox Business",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "CNBC",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          },
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          {
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            "name": "MarketWatch",
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            "name": "Reuters",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
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        {
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      ],
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        "bank america",
        "ipo",
        "kraken"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TFKF4MGK35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C4DL2W7JY6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-CITI",
      "question": "Will Citigroup take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Citigroup",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Citigroup: Kalshi staff determination based on Fox Business reporting will resolve whether the listed company takes the referenced entity public by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Citigroup serves as a lead underwriter for Kraken's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe bank must serve as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator as documented in SEC filings (Form S-1 or final prospectus) or official announcements. Joint book-running managers qualify. Direct listings, SPAC mergers, secondary offerings, and private placements do not qualify. If the bank merges with another institution, the surviving entity under any name qualifies. For dual listings, only the U.S. portion is considered. Even if the IPO is later shelved, the market resolves Yes based on the announcement of the underwriting relationship.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
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          },
          {
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            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7712.6889,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-054B10E45D",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-FTFNM9G700",
          "price": 0.34
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "bank",
        "citigroup",
        "ipo",
        "kraken"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-C4DL2W7JY6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}