{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P48SG1MJ63",
  "slug": "kxlakeconf-26may12",
  "question": "Will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-ambassadorship",
    "kari-lake",
    "senate-confirmation",
    "jamaica",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track U.S. Senate confirmation of Kari Lake as Ambassador to Jamaica across three sequential deadlines. The deadlines are September 1, 2026, January 1, 2027, and April 1, 2027. Earlier strikes are nested within later ones, so the September contract resolves first and prices the near-term confirmation probability. All three resolve via Kalshi staff determination using U.S. Senate confirmation records as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K4GYQDGKW6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.62,
    "implied_probability": 0.62
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VQY3PRBK67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P48SG1MJ63",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-SEP01",
      "question": "Will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Sep 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: The named candidate's confirmation status resolves via Kalshi staff determination using U.S. Senate official records, with confirmation deadline January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Kari Lake is the first person confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Senate",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Senate",
            "url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Senate",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 258.40000000000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 976.0040000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ambassador",
        "confirmation",
        "jamaica",
        "kari lake ambassador",
        "kari-lake"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K4GYQDGKW6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P48SG1MJ63",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-JAN01",
      "question": "Will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: The named candidate's confirmation status resolves via Kalshi staff determination using U.S. Senate official records, with confirmation deadline January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Kari Lake is the first person confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Senate",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Senate",
            "url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Senate",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.62,
      "implied_probability": 0.62,
      "volume_24h_usd": 384.6604,
      "volume_total_usd": 7592.9788,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ambassador",
        "confirmation",
        "jamaica",
        "kari lake ambassador",
        "kari-lake"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KZ3T46PX37",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P48SG1MJ63",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-APR01",
      "question": "Will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Apr 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Apr 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Apr 1, 2027: The named candidate's confirmation status resolves via Kalshi staff determination using U.S. Senate official records, with confirmation deadline January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Kari Lake is the first person confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Senate",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Senate",
            "url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Senate",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "volume_24h_usd": 235.61320000000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 7561.5728,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ambassador",
        "confirmation",
        "jamaica",
        "kari lake ambassador",
        "kari-lake"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-P48SG1MJ63",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}