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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
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    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6FYKGGKDQ4",
  "slug": "kxlamayoroutperform-26jun02",
  "question": "Will a candidate in the Los Angeles Mayor Primary outperform the polls?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "los-angeles-mayor",
    "primary-election",
    "polling-accuracy",
    "2027",
    "electoral-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether each candidate's vote share in the 2027 Los Angeles Mayor primary exceeds their pre-election polling average. All five markets are Kalshi binary contracts, each isolating a single candidate's polling accuracy. They are structurally parallel, not cross-platform, and resolved by Kalshi staff determination against official results certified by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder. Polling averages are sourced from the Race to the WH aggregate, introducing snapshot-timing risk around the 10:00 AM ET reference point.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YS4GVM7R84",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.98
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "platform_market_id": "KXLAMAYOROUTPERFORM-26JUN02-KBAS",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?",
      "description": "Karen Bass",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Karen Bass: The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder or certified election authority's official primary election results, published by June 10, 2027, resolve whether the named candidate's vote share exceeds their polling average as of 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-10T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Karen Bass's realized result in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe Los Angeles Mayor primary polling average are: Karen Bass 27.7%, Spencer Pratt 22.1%, Nithya Raman 21.9%, Adam Miller 6.5%, Rae Huang 6.5%.",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7466.35,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will Spencer Pratt outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?",
      "description": "Spencer Pratt",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Spencer Pratt: The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder or certified election authority's official primary election results, published by June 10, 2027, resolve whether the named candidate's vote share exceeds their polling average as of 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Spencer Pratt's realized result in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe Los Angeles Mayor primary polling average are: Karen Bass 27.7%, Spencer Pratt 22.1%, Nithya Raman 21.9%, Adam Miller 6.5%, Rae Huang 6.5%.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D2B63DFYH2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6FYKGGKDQ4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAMAYOROUTPERFORM-26JUN02-NRAM",
      "question": "Will Nithya Raman outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?",
      "description": "Nithya Raman",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Nithya Raman: The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder or certified election authority's official primary election results, published by June 10, 2027, resolve whether the named candidate's vote share exceeds their polling average as of 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Nithya Raman's realized result in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe Los Angeles Mayor primary polling average are: Karen Bass 27.7%, Spencer Pratt 22.1%, Nithya Raman 21.9%, Adam Miller 6.5%, Rae Huang 6.5%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question": "Will Adam Miller outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Adam Miller: The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder or certified election authority's official primary election results, published by June 10, 2027, resolve whether the named candidate's vote share exceeds their polling average as of 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Adam Miller's realized result in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe Los Angeles Mayor primary polling average are: Karen Bass 27.7%, Spencer Pratt 22.1%, Nithya Raman 21.9%, Adam Miller 6.5%, Rae Huang 6.5%.",
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      "question": "Will Rae Huang outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?",
      "description": "Rae Huang",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Rae Huang: The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder or certified election authority's official primary election results, published by June 10, 2027, resolve whether the named candidate's vote share exceeds their polling average as of 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Rae Huang's realized result in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe Los Angeles Mayor primary polling average are: Karen Bass 27.7%, Spencer Pratt 22.1%, Nithya Raman 21.9%, Adam Miller 6.5%, Rae Huang 6.5%.",
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