{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-N3J0FBGCV3",
  "slug": "kxlaunchcountm-jul",
  "question": "Launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      14,
      15
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 11,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13,
        "prob": 89
      },
      {
        "threshold": 14,
        "prob": 79
      },
      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 29
      },
      {
        "threshold": 16,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 17,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 18,
        "prob": 2
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "space-launches",
    "technology-quantitative",
    "monthly-metric",
    "2026",
    "commercial-spaceflight"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track cumulative U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider launches in July 2026. The FAA serves as the authoritative data source for resolution. Kalshi staff determination applies across eight discrete strike thresholds, ranging from above 11 to above 18 launches. Traders can express views on both the count level and the probability distribution across thresholds.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D2BFFMTRW4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.03,
    "implied_probability": 0.03
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-06RBK7MJV4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N3J0FBGCV3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-11",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 11",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 11: Federal Aviation Administration's cumulative U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider launch count for July 2026, reported by Kalshi staff determination on or after August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have Above 11 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1870.4413,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 11,
      "question_id": "CMX-C5A5566080",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "united states"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PLV8L72D46",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N3J0FBGCV3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-12",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 12",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12: Federal Aviation Administration's cumulative U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider launch count for July 2026, reported by Kalshi staff determination on or after August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have Above 12 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
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            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22.4832,
      "volume_total_usd": 79.6608,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": "CMX-C63EF25251",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "united states"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NFS9ZF1NG4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N3J0FBGCV3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-13",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 13",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 13: Federal Aviation Administration's cumulative U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider launch count for July 2026, reported by Kalshi staff determination on or after August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have Above 13 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
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            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 876.832,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13,
      "question_id": "CMX-FFF7A22ED5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "united states"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z9ZT6LP638",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N3J0FBGCV3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-14",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 14",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 14: Federal Aviation Administration's cumulative U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider launch count for July 2026, reported by Kalshi staff determination on or after August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have Above 14 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
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            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 233.662,
      "volume_total_usd": 1202.4688,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": "CMX-52FEA37D1A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "united states"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D2BFFMTRW4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N3J0FBGCV3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-15",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 15",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 15: Federal Aviation Administration's cumulative U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider launch count for July 2026, reported by Kalshi staff determination on or after August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have Above 15 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 48.8397,
      "volume_total_usd": 367.8495,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": "CMX-631F19498D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "united states"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-27447D4FG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N3J0FBGCV3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-16",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 16",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 16: Federal Aviation Administration's cumulative U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider launch count for July 2026, reported by Kalshi staff determination on or after August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have Above 16 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
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            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11.8362,
      "volume_total_usd": 162.1666,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 16,
      "question_id": "CMX-728959690C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GHVC5TBBG0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N3J0FBGCV3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-17",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 17",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 17: Federal Aviation Administration's cumulative U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider launch count for July 2026, reported by Kalshi staff determination on or after August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have Above 17 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.9358,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 17,
      "question_id": "CMX-616EDEFC32",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XZQHL2ZSQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N3J0FBGCV3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-18",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Above 18",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 18: Federal Aviation Administration's cumulative U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider launch count for July 2026, reported by Kalshi staff determination on or after August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have Above 18 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.5208000000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 49.87479999999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 18,
      "question_id": "CMX-1F921786E5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-N3J0FBGCV3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}