{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
  "slug": "kxlaunches-26jul",
  "question": "Launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      14,
      15
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 13,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 14,
        "prob": 80
      },
      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 31
      },
      {
        "threshold": 16,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 17,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 18,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 19,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20,
        "prob": 6
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "space-launches",
    "commercial-spaceflight",
    "july-2026",
    "quantitative-outcome",
    "technology-infrastructure"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track combined July 2026 launch counts across all U.S.-licensed commercial operators. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of discrete strike thresholds, ranging from above 13 to above 20 launches. Each tier is an independent binary, letting traders express a count range by position across strikes. The Federal Aviation Administration licensing records serve as the authoritative source, with resolution by Kalshi staff determination.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Q9F87K7D50",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.03,
    "implied_probability": 0.03
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YTT1NKH1G7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-13",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 13",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 13: Federal Aviation Administration licensing records determine combined U.S.-licensed commercial operator launches in July 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff by August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 13 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, qualifying commercial space launches will be based on the documented count from the FAA Commercial Space Data list during the time period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 782.5312,
      "volume_total_usd": 3365.7263999999996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13,
      "question_id": "CMX-4A006F8682",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LWW115WTP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-14",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 14",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 14: Federal Aviation Administration licensing records determine combined U.S.-licensed commercial operator launches in July 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff by August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 14 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, qualifying commercial space launches will be based on the documented count from the FAA Commercial Space Data list during the time period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.16,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 1105.8928,
      "volume_total_usd": 4221.1056,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": "CMX-C139E185D8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "usa"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-15",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 15",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 15: Federal Aviation Administration licensing records determine combined U.S.-licensed commercial operator launches in July 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff by August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 15 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, qualifying commercial space launches will be based on the documented count from the FAA Commercial Space Data list during the time period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 111.32099999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 728.3516999999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": "CMX-A98BA41233",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "usa"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B7QD3HX6X1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-16",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 16",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 16: Federal Aviation Administration licensing records determine combined U.S.-licensed commercial operator launches in July 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff by August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 16 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, qualifying commercial space launches will be based on the documented count from the FAA Commercial Space Data list during the time period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.9358,
      "volume_total_usd": 132.2306,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 16,
      "question_id": "CMX-A36A1D4057",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9XZNNQQQY2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-17",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 17",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 17: Federal Aviation Administration licensing records determine combined U.S.-licensed commercial operator launches in July 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff by August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 17 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, qualifying commercial space launches will be based on the documented count from the FAA Commercial Space Data list during the time period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.9351,
      "volume_total_usd": 66.6217,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 17,
      "question_id": "CMX-0BDD6D4451",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "usa"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9TKPS2MVK0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-18",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 18",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 18: Federal Aviation Administration licensing records determine combined U.S.-licensed commercial operator launches in July 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff by August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 18 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, qualifying commercial space launches will be based on the documented count from the FAA Commercial Space Data list during the time period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
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            "url": "https://www.faa.gov",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.02,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.9358,
      "volume_total_usd": 64.8776,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 18,
      "question_id": "CMX-DC0446A8F0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WFLZQ6DW27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-19",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 19",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 19: Federal Aviation Administration licensing records determine combined U.S.-licensed commercial operator launches in July 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff by August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 19 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, qualifying commercial space launches will be based on the documented count from the FAA Commercial Space Data list during the time period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.02,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.9358,
      "volume_total_usd": 9.481,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 19,
      "question_id": "CMX-AEF530B800",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3P7Q3GS3R0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-20",
      "question": "How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 20",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 20: Federal Aviation Administration licensing records determine combined U.S.-licensed commercial operator launches in July 2026, resolved by Kalshi staff by August 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 20 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, qualifying commercial space launches will be based on the documented count from the FAA Commercial Space Data list during the time period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.faa.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.02,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.9358,
      "volume_total_usd": 3.5542000000000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": "CMX-21659FED61",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercial",
        "commercial space launches",
        "launches",
        "space",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}