{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
  "slug": "kxlcpimaxyoy-27",
  "question": "CPI year-over-year maximum, February 2027",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4,
      4.5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 44
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 22
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 17
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "inflation",
    "us-economy",
    "price-levels",
    "2026",
    "macroeconomics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether U.S. CPI inflation peaks at or above discrete thresholds in 2026. The nine Kalshi contracts span 3.0% to 7.0%, each a binary strike on the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI print released by February 28, 2027. Together they form an implied probability distribution across rate levels, readable as a synthetic exceedance curve. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract independently against the authoritative BLS data release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1L4ZH9KR41",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.29,
    "implied_probability": 0.29
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0DCJC0SSG2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P3",
      "question": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 3.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 3.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data released by February 28, 2027 determines whether the named inflation metric meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-17T17:17:55Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 3% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 75999.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-FEEA11FB82",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us inflation rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WD5Q6JGP70",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P3.5",
      "question": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 3.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 3.5%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data released by February 28, 2027 determines whether the named inflation metric meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-12T16:12:53Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 3.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 95759.18,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-D9A388F94F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us inflation rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GZZ950D3Q5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4",
      "question": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 4.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 4.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data released by February 28, 2027 determines whether the named inflation metric meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T14:43:32Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 215562.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-FF119574E3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us inflation rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1L4ZH9KR41",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4.5",
      "question": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 4.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 4.5%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data released by February 28, 2027 determines whether the named inflation metric meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-14T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1849.3677,
      "volume_total_usd": 64233.2339,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-DD48F309CD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us inflation rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-53PYZFTNZ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P5",
      "question": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 5.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 5.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data released by February 28, 2027 determines whether the named inflation metric meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-14T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.179,
      "implied_probability": 0.179,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.55612,
      "volume_total_usd": 15707.31265,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-913A0C37E4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us inflation rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JXWL8VJ638",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P5.5",
      "question": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 5.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 5.5%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data released by February 28, 2027 determines whether the named inflation metric meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-14T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.133,
      "implied_probability": 0.133,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3963.85752,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-9F2FE4C369",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us inflation rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BRVFTHQ6X8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P6.0",
      "question": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 6.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 6.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data released by February 28, 2027 determines whether the named inflation metric meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-14T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 6.0% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 959.1840000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-D859B78306",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us inflation rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P40PZ6JFM0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P6.5",
      "question": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 6.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 6.5%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data released by February 28, 2027 determines whether the named inflation metric meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-14T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 6.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 188.4993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-94833EC1C5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us inflation rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-95FBMNS7X5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P7.0",
      "question": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 7.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 7.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data released by February 28, 2027 determines whether the named inflation metric meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-14T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 7.0% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 36.7044,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": "CMX-4F6A933961",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us inflation rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0DCJC0SSG2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.999,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WD5Q6JGP70",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.999,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GZZ950D3Q5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.999,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}