{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-N27Z8YYRT3",
  "slug": "kxleavestarmer",
  "question": "Will Keir Starmer leave as Prime Minister of the UK? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2027)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "uk-politics",
    "prime-minister",
    "leadership-departure",
    "keir-starmer",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Keir Starmer departs as UK Prime Minister across a tiered series of deadline thresholds. All seven markets are Kalshi binary contracts; the structural insight is that each prices the same departure outcome against a distinct deadline, from May 1 through September 1, 2026. A trader can read implied hazard rates across the term structure by comparing prices across tiers. Kalshi staff determination references Washington Post reporting as the authoritative trigger for resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NTZ7KM1YM7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.66,
    "implied_probability": 0.66
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2QL72FVKX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N27Z8YYRT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEAVESTARMER-26MAY01",
      "question": "Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before May 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 1, 2026: Kalshi staff determination based on The Washington Post reports whether the named candidate leaves the office before the specified deadline, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn \"official announcement\" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.\n\n\"Leaving office\" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government websites relevant to <office>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "office or organization where <person> holds <office>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 64,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 409.05,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "departure",
        "keir starmer",
        "keir starmer leaves",
        "prime minister",
        "uk politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RMK6SNPCY0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N27Z8YYRT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEAVESTARMER-26MAY15",
      "question": "Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 15, 2026?",
      "description": "Before May 15, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 15, 2026: Kalshi staff determination based on The Washington Post reports whether the named candidate leaves the office before the specified deadline, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-22T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn \"official announcement\" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.\n\n\"Leaving office\" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official government websites relevant to <office>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "office or organization where <person> holds <office>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 64,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1977.27,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "departure",
        "keir starmer",
        "keir starmer leaves",
        "prime minister",
        "uk politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6VS131TW36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N27Z8YYRT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEAVESTARMER-26MAY19",
      "question": "Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 19, 2026?",
      "description": "Before May 19, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 19, 2026: Kalshi staff determination based on The Washington Post reports whether the named candidate leaves the office before the specified deadline, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-19T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn \"official announcement\" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.\n\n\"Leaving office\" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "name": "Fox News",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government websites relevant to <office>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "office or organization where <person> holds <office>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 64,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1034.71,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "departure",
        "keir starmer",
        "keir starmer leaves",
        "prime minister",
        "uk politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-32GXZRPWZ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N27Z8YYRT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUN01",
      "question": "Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jun 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jun 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jun 1, 2026: Kalshi staff determination based on The Washington Post reports whether the named candidate leaves the office before the specified deadline, resolved by September 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn \"official announcement\" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.\n\n\"Leaving office\" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government websites relevant to <office>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "office or organization where <person> holds <office>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 64,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6015.37,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "keir starmer",
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        "uk politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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