{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P267Q2WW9",
  "slug": "kxlebanonparli-26",
  "question": "Will there be a clear winner in the Lebanese general election by 2028?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "lebanese-politics",
    "general-election",
    "2028",
    "middle-east",
    "parliamentary-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the next Lebanese general election, expected before January 1, 2028. Kalshi lists nine parties as discrete binary contracts, including Lebanese Forces, Hezbollah, FPM, and Amal Movement. A tenth contract prices the probability that the election is postponed beyond the resolution date. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract against official proclamation of results.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5V77968DK7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.61,
    "implied_probability": 0.61
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-582D904P78",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P267Q2WW9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEBANONPARLI-26-FORCES",
      "question": "Who will win the next Lebanese general election?",
      "description": "Lebanese Forces",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Lebanese Forces: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named outcome occurs before January 1, 2028, based on official proclamations from Lebanese electoral authorities or government.",
      "close_at": "2028-05-11T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is Lebanese Forces, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.\n\nPostponed elections: Contract remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1807.5689999999997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "lebanese forces",
        "lebanon",
        "political party"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-87Z1KHC111",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P267Q2WW9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEBANONPARLI-26-FPM",
      "question": "Who will win the next Lebanese general election?",
      "description": "FPM",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "FPM: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named outcome occurs before January 1, 2028, based on official proclamations from Lebanese electoral authorities or government.",
      "close_at": "2028-05-11T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is FPM, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.\n\nPostponed elections: Contract remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.045,
      "implied_probability": 0.045,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 10.35,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "free patriotic movement",
        "lebanon",
        "political party"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G59X8WRB48",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P267Q2WW9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEBANONPARLI-26-HEZBOLLAH",
      "question": "Who will win the next Lebanese general election?",
      "description": "Hezbollah",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hezbollah: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named outcome occurs before January 1, 2028, based on official proclamations from Lebanese electoral authorities or government.",
      "close_at": "2028-05-11T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is Hezbollah, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.\n\nPostponed elections: Contract remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12.8254,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "hezbollah",
        "lebanon",
        "political party"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-695TJP9HT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P267Q2WW9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEBANONPARLI-26-AMAL",
      "question": "Who will win the next Lebanese general election?",
      "description": "Amal Movement",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Amal Movement: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named outcome occurs before January 1, 2028, based on official proclamations from Lebanese electoral authorities or government.",
      "close_at": "2028-05-11T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is Amal Movement, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.\n\nPostponed elections: Contract remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.049,
      "implied_probability": 0.049,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 322.14070000000004,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "amal movement",
        "election",
        "lebanon",
        "political party"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RB5DLBKS21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P267Q2WW9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEBANONPARLI-26-PSP",
      "question": "Who will win the next Lebanese general election?",
      "description": "PSP",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "PSP: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named outcome occurs before January 1, 2028, based on official proclamations from Lebanese electoral authorities or government.",
      "close_at": "2028-05-11T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is PSP, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.\n\nPostponed elections: Contract remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.05,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "lebanon",
        "political party",
        "progressive socialist party"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2307DDH1Z2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P267Q2WW9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEBANONPARLI-26-KATAEB",
      "question": "Who will win the next Lebanese general election?",
      "description": "Kataeb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kataeb: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named outcome occurs before January 1, 2028, based on official proclamations from Lebanese electoral authorities or government.",
      "close_at": "2028-05-11T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is Kataeb, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.\n\nPostponed elections: Contract remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.05,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "kataeb",
        "lebanon",
        "political party"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PQPPMY9P58",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5P267Q2WW9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLEBANONPARLI-26-TASHNAG",
      "question": "Who will win the next Lebanese general election?",
      "description": "Tashnag",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Tashnag: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named outcome occurs before January 1, 2028, based on official proclamations from Lebanese electoral authorities or government.",
      "close_at": "2028-05-11T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is Tashnag, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.\n\nPostponed elections: Contract remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.1,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "lebanon",
        "political party",
        "tashnag"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
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}