{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-H9M19LCMC2",
  "slug": "kxllama5-27",
  "question": "Will Meta release Llama 5 this year?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "llama-5",
    "meta-ai",
    "large-language-models",
    "ai-release",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Meta publicly releases a model designated Llama 5 or higher before January 1, 2027. A single Kalshi binary resolves via Kalshi staff determination against that deadline. Resolution hinges on Meta's public release announcement, not internal deployment or research previews. Naming ambiguity matters: a model released under a different designation would likely not satisfy resolution criteria.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-N5TJKG6CK1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N5TJKG6CK1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H9M19LCMC2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLAMA5-27",
      "question": "Will Meta release A model called Llama 5 or greater before Jan 2027?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination of whether Meta has publicly released a model called Llama 5 or greater by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Meta releases Llama 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "OpenAI",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "OpenAI",
            "url": "https://openai.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6753.0267,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0F84F7D920",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "llama",
        "meta",
        "meta llama release",
        "model release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-H9M19LCMC2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}