{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
  "slug": "kxllm1-26aug10",
  "question": "Will there be a breakthrough in artificial intelligence this week?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-weekly-ranking",
    "technology-assessment",
    "subjective-resolution",
    "2026",
    "comparative-evaluation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model ranks highest on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of August 10, 2026. Kalshi lists nine candidate models as discrete binary contracts: Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Dola, Qwen, Amazon Nova, MUSE, and Kimi. Each contract resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination. The authoritative source is the LM Arena Leaderboard overall ranking at the specified timestamp.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3Z9ZJ0QR14",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2DSQM7Y4R2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG10-GOOG",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Gemini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gemini: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) overall ranking as of August 10, 2026 14:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff resolves based on that ranking.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 29.92,
      "volume_total_usd": 29.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D2D20B7E19",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-263WBPHM36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG10-OPEN",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "ChatGPT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "ChatGPT: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) overall ranking as of August 10, 2026 14:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff resolves based on that ranking.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 411.71,
      "volume_total_usd": 455.03,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7964FBAF97",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatgpt",
        "llm",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3Z9ZJ0QR14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG10-ANTH",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Claude",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Claude: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) overall ranking as of August 10, 2026 14:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff resolves based on that ranking.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9987.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 12623.83,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-28AE90BA71",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-813767FPP7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG10-XAI",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Grok",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Grok: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) overall ranking as of August 10, 2026 14:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff resolves based on that ranking.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.83,
      "volume_total_usd": 9.83,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A2CD1688BE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "grok",
        "llm",
        "xai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZB6HV5NYW8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG10-BYTE",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Dola",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Dola: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) overall ranking as of August 10, 2026 14:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff resolves based on that ranking.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ByteDance has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.43,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.43,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BD1E7D5537",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "dola",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YFJP8KYNZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG10-ALIB",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Qwen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Qwen: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) overall ranking as of August 10, 2026 14:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff resolves based on that ranking.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 68.4,
      "volume_total_usd": 71.33,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-04740F1D78",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "alibaba",
        "llm",
        "qwen"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V04MTF2DG5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG10-AMAZ",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Amazon Nova",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Amazon Nova: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) overall ranking as of August 10, 2026 14:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff resolves based on that ranking.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Amazon has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 49.15,
      "volume_total_usd": 51.15,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-63901D080F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "amazon",
        "amazon nova",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JDWRW0SQ78",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG10-META",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "MUSE",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "MUSE: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) overall ranking as of August 10, 2026 14:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff resolves based on that ranking.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C49BEF7B92",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "llm",
        "muse"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HVY42J9483",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG10-MOON",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Kimi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kimi: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) overall ranking as of August 10, 2026 14:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff resolves based on that ranking.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Moonshot has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2PJR4WXZM0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}