{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3WP4ZQ4ZR4",
  "slug": "kxllm1-26aug31",
  "question": "Will the best AI system in August 2026 be identified by a specific benchmark or evaluation?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-capability-rankings",
    "artificial-intelligence",
    "technology-2026",
    "comparative-performance",
    "llm-benchmarks"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model ranks first on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of August 2026. Each contract covers a distinct model: Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Muse, Qwen, and Kimi. The contracts are mutually exclusive; only one model can hold the top rank. Kalshi staff determination resolves all contracts against the leaderboard snapshot at the August 31, 2026 close.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SJ8MF1DS74",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.93,
    "implied_probability": 0.93
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DBKT5QLNK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3WP4ZQ4ZR4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG31-GOOG",
      "question": "Best AI in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Gemini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gemini: Kalshi staff determination of the top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of August 31, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 139.26,
      "volume_total_usd": 1044.8,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6985EEA0E7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4N5NTQLPR8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3WP4ZQ4ZR4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG31-OAI",
      "question": "Best AI in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "ChatGPT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "ChatGPT: Kalshi staff determination of the top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of August 31, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 327.26,
      "volume_total_usd": 695.21,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0EFCF32C7C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatgpt",
        "llm",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SJ8MF1DS74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3WP4ZQ4ZR4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG31-A",
      "question": "Best AI in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Claude",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Claude: Kalshi staff determination of the top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of August 31, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2697.19,
      "volume_total_usd": 10316.25,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-EB4479FF95",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQKZ45XH12",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3WP4ZQ4ZR4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG31-XAI",
      "question": "Best AI in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Grok",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Grok: Kalshi staff determination of the top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of August 31, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.18,
      "volume_total_usd": 12.86,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1B1820CFE7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "grok",
        "llm",
        "xai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JZ8NZY8FK1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3WP4ZQ4ZR4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG31-META",
      "question": "Best AI in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Muse",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Muse: Kalshi staff determination of the top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of August 31, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11.95,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0FAC0A0856",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "llm",
        "muse"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0P3TQ42DR2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3WP4ZQ4ZR4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG31-ALI",
      "question": "Best AI in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Qwen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Qwen: Kalshi staff determination of the top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of August 31, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 30.38,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-36C9F1A4F7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "alibaba",
        "llm",
        "qwen"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LKD5DL5838",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3WP4ZQ4ZR4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26AUG31-MOON",
      "question": null,
      "description": "Kimi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kimi: Kalshi staff determination of the top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of August 31, 2026, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Moonshot has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 29.06,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F24BB44DEB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "kimi",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3WP4ZQ4ZR4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}