{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
  "slug": "kxllm1-26dec31",
  "question": "Will the best AI system at the end of 2026 be identified by then?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "artificial-intelligence",
    "ai-capabilities",
    "technology-rankings",
    "year-end-2026",
    "model-comparison"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI system ranks highest on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of December 31, 2026, at 15:00 UTC. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete binary contracts, one per named model: Ernie, Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Muse Spark, Qwen, and Kimi. Prices across contracts should sum near 1.0; divergence signals implied model-switching risk. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination referencing the LM Arena Leaderboard at the specified timestamp.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X1R07G52R3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.609,
    "implied_probability": 0.609,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CYW2M1NGT8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-BAID",
      "question": "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Ernie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ernie: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of December 31, 2026, 15:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 13.23967,
      "volume_total_usd": 588.33794,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-75AE3D482B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "baidu",
        "ernie",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KSKL996JX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-GOOG",
      "question": "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Gemini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gemini: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of December 31, 2026, 15:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.054,
      "implied_probability": 0.054,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 980.5411799999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 79625.3382,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E7F58B6FCB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWCF59WD89",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-OAI",
      "question": "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "ChatGPT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "ChatGPT: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of December 31, 2026, 15:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.259,
      "implied_probability": 0.259,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 29989.82238,
      "volume_total_usd": 517829.98204000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FE14BCCA7D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatgpt",
        "llm",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X1R07G52R3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-A",
      "question": "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Claude",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Claude: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of December 31, 2026, 15:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.609,
      "implied_probability": 0.609,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 22342.52916,
      "volume_total_usd": 1319961.59967,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E99BBDD421",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0GLY35Y6R7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-XAI",
      "question": "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Grok",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Grok: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of December 31, 2026, 15:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.069,
      "implied_probability": 0.069,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 2915.8095900000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 102681.43644,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A8D601510",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "grok",
        "llm",
        "xai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VV3G9WF367",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-META",
      "question": "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Muse Spark",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Muse Spark: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of December 31, 2026, 15:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.018,
      "implied_probability": 0.018,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 660.6781199999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 19319.93424,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CD60942947",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "llm",
        "muse spark"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BNV8BX99X8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-ALI",
      "question": "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Qwen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Qwen: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of December 31, 2026, 15:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 12.57897,
      "volume_total_usd": 2089.71972,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-86E7FF80D2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "alibaba",
        "llm",
        "qwen"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WQ91NWFNT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-MOON",
      "question": "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Kimi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kimi: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of December 31, 2026, 15:00 UTC determines which listed AI model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Moonshot has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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