{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
  "slug": "kxllm1-26dec31",
  "question": "Will the best AI system at the end of 2026 be identified by then?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "artificial-intelligence",
    "ai-capability-rankings",
    "technology-2026",
    "ai-models",
    "year-end-assessment"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model ranks highest on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of December 31, 2026. Kalshi lists seven discrete model outcomes: Ernie, Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Muse Spark, and Qwen. Each contract is a binary on a single named model, making the set collectively exhaustive across the listed options. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination using the LM Arena leaderboard snapshot on the close date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X1R07G52R3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.626,
    "implied_probability": 0.626
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CYW2M1NGT8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-BAID",
      "question": "Best AI in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Ernie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ernie: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking on December 31, 2026, determines which listed model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.27,
      "volume_total_usd": 2088.54875,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-75AE3D482B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "baidu",
        "ernie",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KSKL996JX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-GOOG",
      "question": "Best AI in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Gemini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gemini: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking on December 31, 2026, determines which listed model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.129,
      "implied_probability": 0.129,
      "volume_24h_usd": 473.11782,
      "volume_total_usd": 153797.70612000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E7F58B6FCB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWCF59WD89",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-OAI",
      "question": "Best AI in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "ChatGPT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "ChatGPT: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking on December 31, 2026, determines which listed model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.186,
      "implied_probability": 0.186,
      "volume_24h_usd": 456.18546000000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 255465.59112,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FE14BCCA7D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatgpt",
        "llm",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X1R07G52R3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-A",
      "question": "Best AI in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Claude",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Claude: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking on December 31, 2026, determines which listed model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.626,
      "implied_probability": 0.626,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2424.35402,
      "volume_total_usd": 1070516.51528,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E99BBDD421",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0GLY35Y6R7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-XAI",
      "question": "Best AI in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Grok",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Grok: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking on December 31, 2026, determines which listed model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.065,
      "implied_probability": 0.065,
      "volume_24h_usd": 779.6906,
      "volume_total_usd": 64940.34105,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A8D601510",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "grok",
        "llm",
        "xai"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VV3G9WF367",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-META",
      "question": "Best AI in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Muse Spark",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Muse Spark: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking on December 31, 2026, determines which listed model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.023,
      "implied_probability": 0.023,
      "volume_24h_usd": 80.61523,
      "volume_total_usd": 18034.36992,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CD60942947",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "llm",
        "muse spark"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BNV8BX99X8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26DEC31-ALI",
      "question": "Best AI in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Qwen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Qwen: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking on December 31, 2026, determines which listed model ranks highest; Kalshi staff confirm the result.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.  Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": 26.18334,
      "volume_total_usd": 4098.39363,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-86E7FF80D2",
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      "tags": [
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        "alibaba",
        "llm",
        "qwen"
      ],
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}