{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1JK5L7BD51",
  "slug": "kxllm1-26jul27",
  "question": "Will there be a clear best AI this week?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-weekly-rankings",
    "technology-news",
    "subjective-resolution",
    "2026",
    "real-time-competition"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks which AI model ranks highest on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of the week ending July 27, 2026. All eight markets are Kalshi-native, each pricing a binary outcome for one named model. The markets are mutually exclusive; at most one resolves YES. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the published LM Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-971B60YCL1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MG8ZBYZ1N1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1JK5L7BD51",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL27-GOOG",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Gemini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gemini: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines the highest-ranked model in the specified category on July 27, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 71,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11.8125,
      "volume_total_usd": 196.4646,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-325DCEF573",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DXL7RXLS20",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1JK5L7BD51",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL27-OPEN",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "ChatGPT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "ChatGPT: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines the highest-ranked model in the specified category on July 27, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 71,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 49.43,
      "volume_total_usd": 631.813,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C264B27087",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatgpt",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-971B60YCL1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1JK5L7BD51",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL27-ANTH",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Claude",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Claude: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines the highest-ranked model in the specified category on July 27, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 71,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1593.9495,
      "volume_total_usd": 29874.9726,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-63AF0D96AF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FT01PZ9TZ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1JK5L7BD51",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL27-XAI",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Grok",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Grok: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines the highest-ranked model in the specified category on July 27, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 71,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.67,
      "volume_total_usd": 471.1064,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2FF55F1A60",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "grok",
        "xai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CGQYPWX697",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1JK5L7BD51",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL27-BYTE",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Dola",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Dola: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines the highest-ranked model in the specified category on July 27, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ByteDance has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 71,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.43,
      "volume_total_usd": 29.5202,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7036AB9C45",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "dola"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GL1N4BCC65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1JK5L7BD51",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL27-ALIB",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Qwen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Qwen: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines the highest-ranked model in the specified category on July 27, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 71,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.4893,
      "volume_total_usd": 226.5478,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-661C8C49E6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "alibaba",
        "qwen"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y29XKVX2T6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1JK5L7BD51",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL27-AMAZ",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "Amazon Nova",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Amazon Nova: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines the highest-ranked model in the specified category on July 27, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Amazon has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 71,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.91,
      "volume_total_usd": 122.1107,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-911B434908",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "amazon nova",
        "aws"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-76298VNGH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1JK5L7BD51",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL27-META",
      "question": "Best AI this week",
      "description": "MUSE",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "MUSE: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines the highest-ranked model in the specified category on July 27, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 71,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.48,
      "volume_total_usd": 59.3653,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F078F4FCBC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "muse"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-1JK5L7BD51",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}