{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JG147DBXZ2",
  "slug": "kxllm1-26jul31",
  "question": "Will the best AI system in July 2026 be determined by a specified benchmark or evaluation method?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "artificial-intelligence",
    "ai-benchmarks",
    "technology-competition",
    "2026",
    "performance-ranking"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model ranks first on LM Arena's Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of July 31, 2026. Kalshi lists each contender as a separate binary contract: Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, LLaMA, Qwen, and Kimi. Prices across contracts must sum to approximately one, making relative implied probabilities directly comparable. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the LM Arena snapshot at 14:00 UTC on July 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MSL6R1BN89",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.98,
    "implied_probability": 0.98
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z97ZY0DHN2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JG147DBXZ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL31-GOOG",
      "question": "Best AI in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Gemini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gemini: LM Arena's Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of July 31, 2026, 2 p.m. UTC determines which listed model ranks highest, resolving the corresponding outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 844.426,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5325A30E2B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D1XW1SMMD3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JG147DBXZ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL31-OAI",
      "question": "Best AI in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "ChatGPT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "ChatGPT: LM Arena's Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of July 31, 2026, 2 p.m. UTC determines which listed model ranks highest, resolving the corresponding outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1523.1577,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7618CCE3A2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatgpt",
        "llm",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MSL6R1BN89",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JG147DBXZ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL31-A",
      "question": "Best AI in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Claude",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Claude: LM Arena's Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of July 31, 2026, 2 p.m. UTC determines which listed model ranks highest, resolving the corresponding outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 154.02659999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 158548.7414,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C5EDB9CD99",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0ZCXKVRHY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JG147DBXZ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL31-XAI",
      "question": "Best AI in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Grok",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Grok: LM Arena's Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of July 31, 2026, 2 p.m. UTC determines which listed model ranks highest, resolving the corresponding outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.0935,
      "volume_total_usd": 166.46869999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2BF5B4FC29",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "grok",
        "llm",
        "xai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VF3LN8GJ42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JG147DBXZ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL31-META",
      "question": "Best AI in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "LLaMA",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LLaMA: LM Arena's Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of July 31, 2026, 2 p.m. UTC determines which listed model ranks highest, resolving the corresponding outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 26.807399999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3F579C77CB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "llama",
        "llm",
        "meta"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JD017S7883",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JG147DBXZ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL31-ALI",
      "question": "Best AI in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Qwen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Qwen: LM Arena's Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of July 31, 2026, 2 p.m. UTC determines which listed model ranks highest, resolving the corresponding outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 50.5636,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-61E4496118",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "alibaba",
        "llm",
        "qwen"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LJFW2P0Q87",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JG147DBXZ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUL31-MOON",
      "question": "Best AI in Jul 2026?",
      "description": "Kimi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kimi: LM Arena's Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) ranking as of July 31, 2026, 2 p.m. UTC determines which listed model ranks highest, resolving the corresponding outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Moonshot has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 169.61810000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-44F428542D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "kimi",
        "llm",
        "moonshot"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JG147DBXZ2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}