{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FM0CGV4YH1",
  "slug": "kxllm1-26jun06",
  "question": "Will the best AI be identified this week?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "ai-ranking",
    "weekly-resolution",
    "technology",
    "comparative-subjective",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model ranks first on LM Arena's Leaderboard using the Remove Style Control filter as of June 6, 2026. Each contract prices a discrete model outcome, collectively forming a probability distribution across competing AI systems. All eight markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination against LM Arena's published rankings. Note that LM Arena rankings reflect human preference votes, not objective benchmark scores, introducing subjectivity into resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZTKLCJGTN6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3FZNSW40W8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FM0CGV4YH1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN06-GOOG",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Gemini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena publishes the Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of June 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 234.44,
      "volume_total_usd": 647.18,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5CA36B0B4F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-034KHYXRZ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FM0CGV4YH1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN06-OPEN",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "ChatGPT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena publishes the Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of June 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 101.02,
      "volume_total_usd": 410.14,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DB38D36B46",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "chatgpt",
        "llm",
        "openai"
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            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZTKLCJGTN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FM0CGV4YH1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN06-ANTH",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Claude",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena publishes the Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of June 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8303.67,
      "volume_total_usd": 54330.95,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-54BD4E8CB7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0PZT2PJ3R1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FM0CGV4YH1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN06-XAI",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Grok",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena publishes the Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of June 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "caps": [],
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      "volume_24h_usd": 24.51,
      "volume_total_usd": 61.57,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4E1DEADB74",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "xai"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RD35B63XJ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FM0CGV4YH1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN06-BYTE",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Dola",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena publishes the Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of June 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ByteDance has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 4.87,
      "volume_total_usd": 8.22,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A330D1E40E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "llm"
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            "under_min_maturity"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FFTQ0XGY82",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FM0CGV4YH1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN06-ALIB",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Qwen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena publishes the Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of June 6, 2026.",
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      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
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      "question_id": "CMX-E30DC7FDC5",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN06-AMAZ",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
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      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena publishes the Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of June 6, 2026.",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "caps": [],
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-36A87F9DE0",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2PK0JLMZH8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FM0CGV4YH1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena publishes the Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of June 6, 2026.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-47AD18A837",
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    },
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      "outcome": "NO",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    },
    {
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      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FM0CGV4YH1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}