{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1HB1G0XGP4",
  "slug": "kxllm1-26jun13",
  "question": "Will there be a clear consensus on the best AI this week?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-performance",
    "technology-weekly",
    "subjective-resolution",
    "2026",
    "ai-models"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI system ranks first on a designated leaderboard as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC. Each contract is a binary outcome on a single named model: Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Dola, Qwen, Amazon Nova, or Muse. The contracts are mutually exclusive; only one model can resolve true. Kalshi staff determination applies, referencing the specified leaderboard standing at resolution time.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7DN53KLCT8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5VR36H37P9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1HB1G0XGP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN13-GOOG",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Gemini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gemini: Kalshi staff determination of the ranked leader on the specified leaderboard as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 112.87,
      "volume_total_usd": 203.26,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-596D3F8621",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NSBJY5KSB5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1HB1G0XGP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN13-OPEN",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "ChatGPT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "ChatGPT: Kalshi staff determination of the ranked leader on the specified leaderboard as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 244.72,
      "volume_total_usd": 835.39,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-29958F7335",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatgpt",
        "llm",
        "openai"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1HB1G0XGP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN13-ANTH",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Claude",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Claude: Kalshi staff determination of the ranked leader on the specified leaderboard as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9809.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 38586.96,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A8F82FFD31",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MF9XSYKYT3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1HB1G0XGP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN13-XAI",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Grok",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Grok: Kalshi staff determination of the ranked leader on the specified leaderboard as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 32.85,
      "volume_total_usd": 85.73,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E9C6B6B582",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "grok",
        "llm",
        "xai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V6LQL438X3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1HB1G0XGP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN13-BYTE",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Dola",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Dola: Kalshi staff determination of the ranked leader on the specified leaderboard as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ByteDance has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.37,
      "volume_total_usd": 31.17,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-552D4FF3D7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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          "bucket": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H3W3P268R8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1HB1G0XGP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN13-ALIB",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Qwen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Qwen: Kalshi staff determination of the ranked leader on the specified leaderboard as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 55.91,
      "volume_total_usd": 117.45,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": "CMX-3444C971C2",
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      "tags": [
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        "qwen"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-50YG1FHK04",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1HB1G0XGP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN13-AMAZ",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Amazon Nova",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Amazon Nova: Kalshi staff determination of the ranked leader on the specified leaderboard as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Amazon has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 72,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 83.09,
      "volume_total_usd": 430.58,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-EB2CD63F2B",
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          "bucket": null,
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TCY8V36KH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1HB1G0XGP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN13-META",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Muse",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Muse: Kalshi staff determination of the ranked leader on the specified leaderboard as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 1.14,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.93,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-7E6C19476D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "muse"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5VR36H37P9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
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