{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P9PQ3YTRF6",
  "slug": "kxllm1-26jun30",
  "question": "Will the best AI system in June 2026 be determined by benchmark performance?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "artificial-intelligence",
    "ai-models",
    "technology-2026",
    "comparative-ranking",
    "near-term-prediction"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These six Kalshi binary markets each price a distinct model winning the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 30, 2026. Candidates span proprietary and open-weight models: ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, LLaMA, and Qwen. The markets are mutually exclusive; exactly one model holds the top rank at resolution. Kalshi staff determination resolves against the published leaderboard snapshot at 2:00 PM UTC on June 30, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-399D3S9QB1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6LQ8DT28R4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P9PQ3YTRF6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN30-GOOG",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Gemini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Gemini: The leading AI model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 312.08,
      "volume_total_usd": 3204.87,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E09CCB3F2F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VLSTF0CDR2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P9PQ3YTRF6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN30-OAI",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "ChatGPT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "ChatGPT: The leading AI model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 114.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 629.48,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-539B78C67A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatgpt",
        "llm",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-399D3S9QB1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P9PQ3YTRF6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN30-A",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Claude",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Claude: The leading AI model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2952.74,
      "volume_total_usd": 80880.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F0A22A718B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YW57886G59",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P9PQ3YTRF6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN30-XAI",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Grok",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Grok: The leading AI model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 36.8,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-16020EE3B3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "llm",
        "xai"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KKWPBM60C8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P9PQ3YTRF6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN30-META",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "LLaMA",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LLaMA: The leading AI model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.51,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F1AE9E4007",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "llama",
        "llm",
        "meta"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4XPBBPRVL1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P9PQ3YTRF6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLLM1-26JUN30-ALI",
      "question": "Best AI in Jun 2026?",
      "description": "Qwen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Qwen: The leading AI model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC, per Kalshi staff determination, resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
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        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
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        "qwen"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6LQ8DT28R4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-399D3S9QB1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YW57886G59",
      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-P9PQ3YTRF6",
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}