{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQ29LDRD04",
  "slug": "kxloseprimaryhoused-26nov03",
  "question": "How many House Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-democrats",
    "primary-elections",
    "2026-elections",
    "electoral-outcomes",
    "political-attrition"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the count of incumbent House Democrats defeated in 2026 primary elections. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete count tiers: exactly 0 through 6, plus a 7-or-more bucket. Each tier is mutually exclusive, so the full distribution sums to 100%. Kalshi staff determination uses ABC News reported results as the authoritative source, with resolution by November 3, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-W710P18KS6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.87,
    "implied_probability": 0.87
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WK1RKRG3F8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQ29LDRD04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSED-26NOV03-0",
      "question": "Will exactly 0 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "0: House Democratic primary election results reported by ABC News by November 3, 2026 determine the count of incumbent members who lose their primary races.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-28T14:52:03Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate.\n\nIn jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
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        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Fox News",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "MSNBC",
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            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
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          },
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            "name": "The New York Times",
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          {
            "name": "Federal Register",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
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            "name": "Politico",
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        "caps": [],
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQ29LDRD04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will exactly 1 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "1: House Democratic primary election results reported by ABC News by November 3, 2026 determine the count of incumbent members who lose their primary races.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate.\n\nIn jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
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            "name": "Politico",
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        "caps": [],
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 27.54,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "us-politics"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J8FFKKXKS3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQ29LDRD04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSED-26NOV03-2",
      "question": "Will exactly 2 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "2: House Democratic primary election results reported by ABC News by November 3, 2026 determine the count of incumbent members who lose their primary races.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate.\n\n\nIn jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
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        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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            "name": "CBS",
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            "name": "Federal Register",
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            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
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            "name": "Politico",
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        "caps": [],
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QV8ZH9GXX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQ29LDRD04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSED-26NOV03-3",
      "question": "Will exactly 3 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "House Democratic primary election results reported by ABC News by November 3, 2026 determine the count of incumbent members who lose their primary races.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate.\n\n\nIn jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
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            "name": "Politico",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FV05GCJKX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQ29LDRD04",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSED-26NOV03-4",
      "question": "Will exactly 4 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "4",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "4: House Democratic primary election results reported by ABC News by November 3, 2026 determine the count of incumbent members who lose their primary races.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate.\n\n\nIn jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
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