{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6SV5D4KR0",
  "slug": "kxloseprimarysenated-26nov03",
  "question": "How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate-2026",
    "democratic-primary",
    "primary-election",
    "us-politics",
    "incumbent-vulnerability"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track how many sitting Senate Democrats lose primary elections in the 2026 cycle. Kalshi structures the event as five mutually exclusive discrete tiers: exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, or at least 4 incumbents defeated. All five contracts resolve via Kalshi staff determination, using ABC News reporting as the authoritative source. Resolution is set for November 3, 2026, after primary results are certified across all states.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HL7X3JRF25",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.63,
    "implied_probability": 0.63
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HL7X3JRF25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6SV5D4KR0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03-0",
      "question": "Will exactly 0 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "0: Kalshi staff determination of the final count of Senate Democratic members losing primary elections, reported by ABC News by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Democratic Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 03, 2026 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate.\n\n\n In jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
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            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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            "name": "CBS",
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            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6SV5D4KR0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will exactly 1 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the number of Democratic Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 03, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate.\n\n\n In jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
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        "score": 73,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.19,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z90HMPWH28",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03-2",
      "question": "Will exactly 2 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?",
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      "underlying_reference": "2: Kalshi staff determination of the final count of Senate Democratic members losing primary elections, reported by ABC News by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Democratic Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 03, 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate.\n\n\n In jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-92FF5TG067",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will exactly 3 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?",
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      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Democratic Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 03, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate.\n\n\n In jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03-4",
      "question": "Will at least 4 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "4",
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      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Democratic Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 03, 2026 is at least 4, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate.\n\n\n In jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
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