{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2",
  "slug": "kxloseprimarysenater-26nov03",
  "question": "How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate-elections",
    "republican-primaries",
    "2026-elections",
    "primary-losses",
    "electoral-competition"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the count of sitting Senate Republicans defeated in their 2026 primary elections. Kalshi structures the event as five mutually exclusive discrete tiers: exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4-or-more incumbents ousted. All five tiers resolve via Kalshi staff determination, referencing ABC News reporting. Resolution is set for November 3, 2026, following the primary election cycle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-16325TRRZ8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.88,
    "implied_probability": 0.88
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JXDK026236",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATER-26NOV03-0",
      "question": "Will exactly 0 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "0: Kalshi staff determination of the count of listed Senate Republican members losing primary elections, via ABC News reporting, by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-17T14:10:27Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must:\n\nBe running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026;\nBe running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November;\nLose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.\n\nIn jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. \n\nFor the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. \n\nIn the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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            "name": "CBS",
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          {
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            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
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        "caps": [],
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      "volume_total_usd": 49.11,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "primary",
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        "senate",
        "senate republicans losing",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATER-26NOV03-1",
      "question": "Will exactly 1 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must:\n\nBe running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026;\nBe running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November;\nLose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.\n\nIn jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. \n\nFor the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. \n\nIn the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Politico",
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 137.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "primary",
        "republican",
        "senate",
        "senate republicans losing",
        "us-politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-16325TRRZ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATER-26NOV03-2",
      "question": "Will exactly 2 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "2: Kalshi staff determination of the count of listed Senate Republican members losing primary elections, via ABC News reporting, by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must:\n\n1. Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026;\n2. Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November;\n3. Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.\n\nIn jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. \n\nFor the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. \n\nIn the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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        "senate",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X8XC767GH4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATER-26NOV03-3",
      "question": "Will exactly 3 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination of the count of listed Senate Republican members losing primary elections, via ABC News reporting, by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must:\n\n1. Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026;\n2. Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November;\n3. Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.\n\nIn jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. \n\nFor the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. \n\nIn the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 17.9024,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "republican",
        "senate",
        "senate republicans losing",
        "us-politics"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATER-26NOV03-4",
      "question": "Will at least 4 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?",
      "description": "4 or more",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4 or more: Kalshi staff determination of the count of listed Senate Republican members losing primary elections, via ABC News reporting, by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is at least 4, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be included, candidates must:\n\n1. Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026;\n2. Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November;\n3. Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.\n\nIn jurisdictions with non-partisan or \"top-two\" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. \n\nFor the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the \"office they currently hold\" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. \n\nIn the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Register",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.6189999999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 3051.116,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "primary",
        "republican",
        "senate",
        "senate republicans losing",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JXDK026236",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.001,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XFRJVB2TS7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.002,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}