{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMLFV8QQ16",
  "slug": "kxlosereelectiondsen-2026",
  "question": "How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate",
    "2026-elections",
    "democratic-losses",
    "political-outcomes",
    "election-results"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track how many incumbent Senate Democrats fail to win reelection in the 2026 midterm cycle. Kalshi structures the event as discrete count tiers: exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5-or-more losses. Each tier is a separate binary contract, letting traders price the full distribution of outcomes. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using Senate Parliamentarian records as of December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-12YZD8GJ91",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.77,
    "implied_probability": 0.77
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMLFV8QQ16",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEREELECTIONDSEN-2026-0",
      "question": "Will exactly 0 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If exactly 0 members of the Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMembers count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.",
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      "question": "Will exactly 1 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "If exactly 1 members of the Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMembers count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P641SN56Z7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMLFV8QQ16",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEREELECTIONDSEN-2026-2",
      "question": "Will exactly 2 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "If exactly 2 members of the Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMembers count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.",
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      "question": "Will exactly 3 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "If exactly 3 members of the Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMembers count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.",
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      "question": "Will exactly 4 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If exactly 4 members of the Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMembers count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.",
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