{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-39Y2BB24Y8",
  "slug": "kxlosereelectionrsen-2026",
  "question": "How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
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    "us-senate-2026",
    "republican-losses",
    "election-outcomes",
    "electoral-seats",
    "political-accountability"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track how many Republican incumbent senators lose reelection in the 2026 U.S. midterm cycle. Kalshi structures the event as five discrete count tiers: exactly 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5-or-more defeats. All five contracts resolve via Kalshi staff determination against Senate Parliamentarian-certified election results as of December 31, 2026. Traders should note the \"at least 5\" tier is open-ended and carries asymmetric tail exposure.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6FN1QFN645",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.48,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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        "rules_raw": "If exactly 1 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMembers count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.",
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      "question": "Will exactly 3 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If exactly 3 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMembers count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.",
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        "rules_raw": "If exactly 4 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMembers count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If at least 5 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMembers count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.",
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