{
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    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8ZFZYDQDD8",
  "slug": "kxmead-26dec",
  "question": "Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation feet in Dec 2026",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1038,
      1039
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1033,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1034,
        "prob": 90
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      {
        "threshold": 1035,
        "prob": 80
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      {
        "threshold": 1036,
        "prob": 78
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      {
        "threshold": 1037,
        "prob": 68
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      {
        "threshold": 1038,
        "prob": 55
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1039,
        "prob": 49
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1040,
        "prob": 35
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "lake-mead",
    "water-elevation",
    "southwest-drought",
    "climate-measurement",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation reading for December 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds, from 1033 to 1040 feet, each a binary yes/no. The implied probability curve across strikes encodes a continuous distribution of the elevation outcome. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is the authoritative source, with Kalshi staff determination resolving each contract by January 7, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SB621L4VN1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.48,
    "implied_probability": 0.48
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "question": "Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1033 feet in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1033 Ft",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1033 Ft: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's reported end-of-month Lake Mead water elevation, published by January 7, 2027, determines whether the listed elevation threshold was exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1033 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/hourly/mead-elv.html",
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        "source_of_record": "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.94,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1033,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "platform_market_id": "KXMEAD-26DEC-A1034",
      "question": "Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1034 feet in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1034 Ft",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 1034 Ft: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's reported end-of-month Lake Mead water elevation, published by January 7, 2027, determines whether the listed elevation threshold was exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1034 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/hourly/mead-elv.html",
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      "last_price": 0.9,
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      "platform_market_id": "KXMEAD-26DEC-A1035",
      "question": "Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1035 feet in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1035 Ft",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 1035 Ft: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's reported end-of-month Lake Mead water elevation, published by January 7, 2027, determines whether the listed elevation threshold was exceeded.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1035 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "last_price": 0.8,
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      "platform_market_id": "KXMEAD-26DEC-A1036",
      "question": "Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1036 feet in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1036 Ft",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1036 Ft: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's reported end-of-month Lake Mead water elevation, published by January 7, 2027, determines whether the listed elevation threshold was exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1036 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "last_price": 0.78,
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    {
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      "platform_market_id": "KXMEAD-26DEC-A1037",
      "question": "Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1037 feet in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1037 Ft",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1037 Ft: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's reported end-of-month Lake Mead water elevation, published by January 7, 2027, determines whether the listed elevation threshold was exceeded.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1037 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question": "Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1038 feet in Dec 2026?",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXMEAD-26DEC-A1039",
      "question": "Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1039 feet in Dec 2026?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 1039 Ft: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's reported end-of-month Lake Mead water elevation, published by January 7, 2027, determines whether the listed elevation threshold was exceeded.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1039 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXMEAD-26DEC-A1040",
      "question": "Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1040 feet in Dec 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1040 Ft",
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        "rules_raw": "If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1040 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-8ZFZYDQDD8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}