{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B77SNX3N32",
  "slug": "kxmelia-28janitems",
  "question": "MercadoLibre Inc. report billion items sold in 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      3350000000,
      3400000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3000000000,
        "prob": 89
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3050000000,
        "prob": 89
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      {
        "threshold": 3100000000,
        "prob": 91
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      {
        "threshold": 3150000000,
        "prob": 86
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      {
        "threshold": 3200000000,
        "prob": 74
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      {
        "threshold": 3250000000,
        "prob": 74
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      {
        "threshold": 3300000000,
        "prob": 68
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      {
        "threshold": 3350000000,
        "prob": 58
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      {
        "threshold": 3400000000,
        "prob": 37
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      {
        "threshold": 3450000000,
        "prob": 26
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      {
        "threshold": 3500000000,
        "prob": 18
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      {
        "threshold": 3550000000,
        "prob": 11
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      {
        "threshold": 3600000000,
        "prob": 8
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      {
        "threshold": 3650000000,
        "prob": 3
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      {
        "threshold": 3700000000,
        "prob": 2
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    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "mercadolibre",
    "ecommerce-metrics",
    "annual-sales-volume",
    "latin-america",
    "financial-reporting"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track MercadoLibre's total items sold across its e-commerce platform for full-year 2026. Kalshi structures the event as 15 binary strike thresholds, ranging from 3.0 billion to 3.7 billion units in 50 million increments. Each contract prices the probability of exceeding a discrete volume level, forming an implied distribution over the reported figure. Kalshi staff determination draws from MercadoLibre's official financial disclosures, with resolution expected by March 2028.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6R1V9SDQM2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.37,
    "implied_probability": 0.37
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3000000000.0",
      "question": "Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3 billion items sold in 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If MercadoLibre Inc. reports Above 3000000000.0 items sold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.89,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 3000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-3F802BCD5C",
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        "ecommerce",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3050000000.0",
      "question": "Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.05 billion items sold in 2026?",
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      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If MercadoLibre Inc. reports Above 3050000000.0 items sold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B77SNX3N32",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3100000000.0",
      "question": "Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.1 billion items sold in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.1 billion",
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      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If MercadoLibre Inc. reports Above 3100000000.0 items sold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.91,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 3100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C9336F2C29",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-87SF9XRG17",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3150000000.0",
      "question": "Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.15 billion items sold in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.15 billion",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.15 billion: The listed company's official financial disclosures or earnings reports, verified by Kalshi staff using Fiscal.ai data, by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If MercadoLibre Inc. reports Above 3150000000.0 items sold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.86,
      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3699.5995999999996,
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      "threshold": 3150000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4A38E04190",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WD2DKJ60R5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B77SNX3N32",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3200000000.0",
      "question": "Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.2 billion items sold in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.2 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.2 billion: The listed company's official financial disclosures or earnings reports, verified by Kalshi staff using Fiscal.ai data, by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If MercadoLibre Inc. reports Above 3200000000.0 items sold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "last_price": 0.74,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "question_id": "CMX-6EE4AB1131",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FT3Y0BCL10",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3250000000.0",
      "question": "Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.25 billion items sold in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.25 billion",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3QZ91ZMHK6",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3300000000.0",
      "question": "Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.3 billion items sold in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.3 billion",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.3 billion: The listed company's official financial disclosures or earnings reports, verified by Kalshi staff using Fiscal.ai data, by March 31, 2028.",
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      "question": "Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.35 billion items sold in 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "If MercadoLibre Inc. reports Above 3350000000.0 items sold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B77SNX3N32",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3400000000.0",
      "question": "Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.4 billion items sold in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.4 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.4 billion: The listed company's official financial disclosures or earnings reports, verified by Kalshi staff using Fiscal.ai data, by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If MercadoLibre Inc. reports Above 3400000000.0 items sold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question": "Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.45 billion items sold in 2026?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.45 billion: The listed company's official financial disclosures or earnings reports, verified by Kalshi staff using Fiscal.ai data, by March 31, 2028.",
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