{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KYR51YTD3",
  "slug": "kxmesenoutcome-27jan",
  "question": "Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "maine-senate",
    "2026-election",
    "us-senate",
    "exact-outcome",
    "electoral-forecast"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the exact outcome of the Maine Senate race resolving in January 2027. Each contract prices a joint probability: a specific Democratic nominee paired with a specific general election winner. The four contracts span two nominees (Graham Platner, Janet Mills) crossed with two winning parties (Democrat, Republican). All four resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the same underlying general election result.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MR00NG3661",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.67,
    "implied_probability": 0.67,
    "as_of": "2026-08-29T01:01:11.017Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MR00NG3661",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KYR51YTD3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMESENOUTCOME-27JAN-GPD",
      "question": "Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?",
      "description": "Democratic party wins ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democratic party wins: Kalshi staff determination of whether the Democratic Party nominee wins the general election, resolved by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ALL of the following occur for before Jan 2027: Dem Nominee: Graham Platner, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Dem Nominee (SENATEPARTYNOM), General Election Winner (SENATEPARTY). All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2027.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 63,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.67,
      "implied_probability": 0.67,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-29T01:01:11.017Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 308449.2199,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democrat",
        "maine",
        "maine senate",
        "platner",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q9V7HDTPD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KYR51YTD3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMESENOUTCOME-27JAN-GPR",
      "question": "Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Republican for Jan 2027?",
      "description": "Republican party wins",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican party wins: Kalshi staff determination of whether the Democratic Party nominee wins the general election, resolved by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ALL of the following occur for before Jan 2027: Dem Nominee: Graham Platner, General Election Winner: Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Dem Nominee (SENATEPARTYNOM), General Election Winner (SENATEPARTY). All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2027.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 63,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 28018.8051,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "maine",
        "maine senate",
        "platner",
        "republican",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H09HJJFPV1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KYR51YTD3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMESENOUTCOME-27JAN-JMD",
      "question": "Will Dem Nominee be Janet Mills AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?",
      "description": "First Dem Nominee: Janet Mills, General Election Winner: Democrat",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "First Dem Nominee: Janet Mills, General Election Winner: Democrat: Kalshi staff determination of whether the Democratic Party nominee wins the general election, resolved by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T14:43:22Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ALL of the following occur for before Jan 2027: Dem Nominee: Janet Mills, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Dem Nominee (SENATEPARTYNOM), General Election Winner (SENATEPARTY). All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2027.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 63,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 141.29,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democrat",
        "maine",
        "maine senate",
        "mills",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8RK37SSH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KYR51YTD3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMESENOUTCOME-27JAN-JMR",
      "question": "Will Dem Nominee be Janet Mills AND General Election Winner be Republican for Jan 2027?",
      "description": "First Dem Nominee: Janet Mills, General Election Winner: Republican",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "First Dem Nominee: Janet Mills, General Election Winner: Republican: Kalshi staff determination of whether the Democratic Party nominee wins the general election, resolved by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T14:43:30Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ALL of the following occur for before Jan 2027: Dem Nominee: Janet Mills, General Election Winner: Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Dem Nominee (SENATEPARTYNOM), General Election Winner (SENATEPARTY). All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2027.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 63,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 291.98,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "maine",
        "maine senate",
        "mills",
        "republican",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8RK37SSH7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-10T15:13:34.497682Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.009,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H09HJJFPV1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-10T15:13:24.497206Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.002,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2KYR51YTD3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}