{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
  "slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
  "question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-midterms-2026",
    "electoral-timing",
    "us-politics",
    "election-administration",
    "binary-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether all 50 states conduct their 2026 U.S. House midterm elections on the scheduled November date. A single Kalshi binary market prices this outcome via Kalshi staff determination. Resolution requires confirming no state deviated from its scheduled election date. The market closes and resolves November 10, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KFC6JXQVP0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.83,
    "implied_probability": 0.83
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KFC6JXQVP0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50",
      "question": "Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?",
      "description": "Yes",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination of whether at least 50 states conducted 2026 U.S. House elections on their scheduled date, informed by The Washington Post reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the regularly scheduled biennial federal general election for the U.S. House of Representatives is conducted on time in all 50 U.S. states on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn election is \"conducted on time\" in a state if, on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, election officials in that state lawfully accept ballots cast by voters in such election in each of the state's U.S. House of Representatives congressional districts, such that votes cast on that date in each such district are eligible to be counted toward determining the winner of the election in that district. Lawful means of accepting ballots include in person at polling places, by mail, by absentee voting, by provisional ballot, or by other lawful means accepted on that date.\n\nLocalized disruptions within a congressional district do not disqualify that district from being \"conducted on time\" so long as ballots are lawfully accepted somewhere within the district on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026. These include, without limitation:\nIndividual polling places opening late or closing early\nIndividual voting machines malfunctioning\nLocalized power, weather, or connectivity outages\n\nHowever, if on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 no ballots are lawfully accepted anywhere within one or more of a state's congressional districts, the state is not \"conducted on time\" regardless of whether ballots are accepted in other congressional districts within that state.\n\nAn election that is postponed to, rescheduled to, conducted on, or otherwise held on a date other than the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 in a state does not qualify as \"conducted on time\" in that state, regardless of the reason for the change of date and regardless of whether such change is lawful. This includes, without limitation, any change effected by federal legislation, executive order, presidential proclamation, federal agency directive, state law or proclamation, court order, or any other instrument. Ballots cast before the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 through early voting do not, by themselves, satisfy this criterion in a state unless ballots are also lawfully accepted on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 in that state.\n\nSpecial elections to fill vacancies, primary elections, and elections to non-voting delegate seats (including those representing the District of Columbia and U.S. territories) are not, by themselves, the \"regularly scheduled biennial federal general election\" referenced herein. The validity, fairness, certification status, or subsequent judicial treatment of any such election does not affect whether the election was \"conducted on time\" for purposes of this Contract; the test is whether election officials in the relevant state lawfully accepted ballots in the election on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Washington Post",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS News",
            "url": "https://cbsnews.org",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the U",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC News",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC News",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC News",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the Federal Election Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "volume_24h_usd": 165.3858,
      "volume_total_usd": 21410.2401,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "elections",
        "house midterm elections",
        "midterms",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}