{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BL6HFHK4H3",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-ar03r",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 19 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "arkansas-3rd-district",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "2027-election",
    "republican-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican margin of victory in the Arkansas 3rd District House election, closing November 2027. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of discrete strike thresholds: 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, and 34 percentage points. Each tier is a binary contract on whether the certified margin clears that level. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using the official Arkansas election authority's certified results.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-43GCKNR7V5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.76,
    "implied_probability": 0.76
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-457Y6KL5B1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BL6HFHK4H3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AR03R-P10",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 10 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 10+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 10+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory percentage in the 2026 House election, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.907,
      "implied_probability": 0.907,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 803.0305900000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "3rd-district",
        "arkansas",
        "arkansas 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CN9H6KVFQ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BL6HFHK4H3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AR03R-P13",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 13 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 13+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 13+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory percentage in the 2026 House election, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.918,
      "implied_probability": 0.918,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 931.4854200000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 13,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "3rd-district",
        "arkansas",
        "arkansas 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JKZYZ0F2V3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BL6HFHK4H3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AR03R-P16",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 16 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 16+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 16+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory percentage in the 2026 House election, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1401.9985,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 16,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "3rd-district",
        "arkansas",
        "arkansas 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-43GCKNR7V5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BL6HFHK4H3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AR03R-P19",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 19 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 19+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 19+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory percentage in the 2026 House election, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 19 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.76,
      "implied_probability": 0.76,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3670.4732,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 19,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "3rd-district",
        "arkansas",
        "arkansas 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DF6ZX595T3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BL6HFHK4H3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AR03R-P22",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 22 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 22+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 22+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory percentage in the 2026 House election, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 22 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.6,
      "implied_probability": 0.6,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2027.838,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 22,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "3rd-district",
        "arkansas",
        "arkansas 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TST74HHGQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BL6HFHK4H3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AR03R-P25",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 25 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 25+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 25+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory percentage in the 2026 House election, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 25 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1674.2535,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "3rd-district",
        "arkansas",
        "arkansas 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V0JRR5LLM8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BL6HFHK4H3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AR03R-P28",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 28 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 28+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 28+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory percentage in the 2026 House election, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 28 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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