{
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    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LCNQT9TY43",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-az01r",
  "question": "Will Arizona's 1st Congressional District margin of victory be within 5 percentage points in the next election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "arizona-politics",
    "2027-election",
    "competitive-race",
    "margin-of-victory"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Republican margin of victory in Arizona's 1st Congressional District House election. Kalshi structures the event as tiered strike thresholds: 1-plus, 4-plus, and 7-plus percentage points. Together the tiers imply a probability distribution over margin magnitude, not just directional outcome. Arizona's Secretary of State certified results serve as the authoritative resolution source, with Kalshi staff determining final settlement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XT4KR8J786",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.2,
    "implied_probability": 0.2
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XT4KR8J786",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LCNQT9TY43",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ01R-P1",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 1 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 1+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 1+ pts: Arizona's Secretary of State certifies the official 2026 general election results for the named district, with Kalshi staff determining margin of victory by subtracting trailing candidate percentage from leading candidate percentage on November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 1st District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2796.6740000000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arizona",
        "arizona 1st district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "republican"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LB8ZCFQ8Q2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LCNQT9TY43",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ01R-P4",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 4 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 4+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 4+ pts: Arizona's Secretary of State certifies the official 2026 general election results for the named district, with Kalshi staff determining margin of victory by subtracting trailing candidate percentage from leading candidate percentage on November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 1st District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1352.8245,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 4,
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      "tags": [
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        "arizona 1st district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9PLML8TD99",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LCNQT9TY43",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ01R-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 7 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 7+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 7+ pts: Arizona's Secretary of State certifies the official 2026 general election results for the named district, with Kalshi staff determining margin of victory by subtracting trailing candidate percentage from leading candidate percentage on November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 1st District by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.037,
      "implied_probability": 0.037,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 531.62155,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arizona",
        "arizona 1st district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin",
        "republican"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LCNQT9TY43",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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