{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4YJHDPBPY7",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-az03d",
  "question": "Arizona's 3rd District margin of victory",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "arizona-politics",
    "2027-election",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "district-level"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic margin of victory in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District House race, scheduled for November 2027. Kalshi structures the event as a series of strike thresholds, each asking whether the margin reaches a specific percentage-point level, from 39 points up to 63 points. Together the strikes form an implied probability distribution over the Democratic vote margin. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination using certified results from Arizona's official election authority.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SXCNL1L1S5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SXCNL1L1S5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4YJHDPBPY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ03D-P39",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 3rd District House election be at least 39 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 39+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 39+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography will report the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 3rd District by 39 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2285.91,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 39,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X2N1NPRWL0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4YJHDPBPY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ03D-P42",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 3rd District House election be at least 42 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 42+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 42+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography will report the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 3rd District by 42 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.958,
      "implied_probability": 0.958,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2172.744,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 42,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "arizona",
        "arizona 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KF3VPZLSS6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4YJHDPBPY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ03D-P45",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 3rd District House election be at least 45 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 45+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 45+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography will report the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 3rd District by 45 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 45,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "bucket": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J78ZFGN3N1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4YJHDPBPY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ03D-P48",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 3rd District House election be at least 48 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 48+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 48+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography will report the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 3rd District by 48 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.64,
      "implied_probability": 0.64,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1452.8,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 48,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YGGCSZJQD2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4YJHDPBPY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ03D-P51",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 3rd District House election be at least 51 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 51+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 51+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography will report the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 3rd District by 51 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2416.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 51,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "bucket": null,
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TVY2KZTPR8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4YJHDPBPY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ03D-P54",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 3rd District House election be at least 54 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 54+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 54+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography will report the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 3rd District by 54 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6.5,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 54,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 3rd district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "margin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S9LM43QZQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4YJHDPBPY7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ03D-P57",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 3rd District House election be at least 57 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 57+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 57+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography will report the margin of victory, resolved by Kalshi staff determination on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 3rd District by 57 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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