{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-az04d",
  "question": "Arizona's 4th District margin of victory",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "arizona-politics",
    "election-margin",
    "2027",
    "electoral-outcomes"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic margin of victory in Arizona's 4th Congressional District House race, scheduled for November 2027. Kalshi structures the event as nine discrete strike thresholds, ranging from 4 points to 28 points in 3-point increments. The ladder of binaries implies a cumulative probability distribution over the Democratic vote margin. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using Arizona's certified election results.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-H922SQGML5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.949,
    "implied_probability": 0.949
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H922SQGML5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ04D-P4",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 4th District House election be at least 4 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 4+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 4+ pts: The Arizona election authority's certified results for the referenced House race, reported by November 3, 2027, determine whether the named candidate's margin exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.949,
      "implied_probability": 0.949,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1746.1599999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "4th-district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 4th district",
        "house-election",
        "margin-of-victory"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5PWM0CZJ21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ04D-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 4th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 7+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 7+ pts: The Arizona election authority's certified results for the referenced House race, reported by November 3, 2027, determine whether the named candidate's margin exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "4th-district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 4th district",
        "house-election",
        "margin-of-victory"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HMLY2W3YQ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ04D-P10",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 4th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 10+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 10+ pts: The Arizona election authority's certified results for the referenced House race, reported by November 3, 2027, determine whether the named candidate's margin exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "4th-district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 4th district",
        "house-election",
        "margin-of-victory"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WRPLMDMWF9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ04D-P13",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 4th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 13+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 13+ pts: The Arizona election authority's certified results for the referenced House race, reported by November 3, 2027, determine whether the named candidate's margin exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 282.0776,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 13,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "4th-district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 4th district",
        "house-election",
        "margin-of-victory"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2MPBX4H1P1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ04D-P16",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 4th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 16+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 16+ pts: The Arizona election authority's certified results for the referenced House race, reported by November 3, 2027, determine whether the named candidate's margin exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1228.64,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 16,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "4th-district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 4th district",
        "house-election",
        "margin-of-victory"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-33Q123ZQT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ04D-P19",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 4th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 19+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 19+ pts: The Arizona election authority's certified results for the referenced House race, reported by November 3, 2027, determine whether the named candidate's margin exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 19 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.36,
      "implied_probability": 0.36,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 471.96,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 19,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "4th-district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 4th district",
        "house-election",
        "margin-of-victory"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9SLVY78GL3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ04D-P22",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 4th District House election be at least 22 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 22+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 22+ pts: The Arizona election authority's certified results for the referenced House race, reported by November 3, 2027, determine whether the named candidate's margin exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 22 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 462.87,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 22,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "4th-district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 4th district",
        "house-election",
        "margin-of-victory"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M7GX2H1YQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ04D-P25",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 4th District House election be at least 25 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 25+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 25+ pts: The Arizona election authority's certified results for the referenced House race, reported by November 3, 2027, determine whether the named candidate's margin exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 25 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 928.5,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "4th-district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 4th district",
        "house-election",
        "margin-of-victory"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q0RTC7DFJ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ04D-P28",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 4th District House election be at least 28 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 28+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 28+ pts: The Arizona election authority's certified results for the referenced House race, reported by November 3, 2027, determine whether the named candidate's margin exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 28 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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          }
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.081,
      "implied_probability": 0.081,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 132.678,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 28,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "4th-district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 4th district",
        "house-election",
        "margin-of-victory"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-53P8C7Z6D3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}