{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1J6SZ25048",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-az09r",
  "question": "Arizona's 9th District margin of victory",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "arizona-politics",
    "house-elections",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "2027-election",
    "electoral-outcomes"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican margin of victory in Arizona's 9th Congressional District House election, closing November 3, 2027. Kalshi structures the event as a strike-threshold ladder, with nine sequential binary contracts spanning 9 to 33 percentage points. Each contract resolves via Kalshi staff determination against Arizona's official election authority certification. The ladder format lets traders express a continuous margin view through discrete strike positions.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YSYGF1PXT4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.74,
    "implied_probability": 0.74
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-02PFDFRZ59",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1J6SZ25048",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ09R-P9",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 9th District House election be at least 9 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 9+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 9+ pts: Arizona's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House district race by November 3, 2027, determining whether the listed outcome achieved at least 15 percentage points.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 9th District by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.84,
      "implied_probability": 0.84,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2577.96,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "9th district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 9th district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-399TF3LRM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1J6SZ25048",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ09R-P12",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 9th District House election be at least 12 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 12+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 12+ pts: Arizona's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House district race by November 3, 2027, determining whether the listed outcome achieved at least 15 percentage points.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 9th District by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1490.6799999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "9th district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 9th district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YSYGF1PXT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1J6SZ25048",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ09R-P15",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 9th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 15+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 15+ pts: Arizona's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House district race by November 3, 2027, determining whether the listed outcome achieved at least 15 percentage points.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 9th District by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.74,
      "implied_probability": 0.74,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2764.2477999999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "9th district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 9th district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RS0GYJGB66",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1J6SZ25048",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ09R-P18",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 9th District House election be at least 18 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 18+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 18+ pts: Arizona's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House district race by November 3, 2027, determining whether the listed outcome achieved at least 15 percentage points.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 9th District by 18 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1084.8500000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 18,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "9th district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 9th district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XGR6LZFH30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1J6SZ25048",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ09R-P21",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 9th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 21+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 21+ pts: Arizona's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House district race by November 3, 2027, determining whether the listed outcome achieved at least 15 percentage points.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 9th District by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.54,
      "implied_probability": 0.54,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 627.8310000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 21,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "9th district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 9th district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L3TTN332K6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1J6SZ25048",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ09R-P24",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 9th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 24+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 24+ pts: Arizona's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House district race by November 3, 2027, determining whether the listed outcome achieved at least 15 percentage points.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 9th District by 24 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.45,
      "implied_probability": 0.45,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 349.2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 24,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "9th district",
        "arizona",
        "arizona 9th district",
        "election",
        "house",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BSKZGSBRW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1J6SZ25048",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ09R-P27",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 9th District House election be at least 27 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 27+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 27+ pts: Arizona's official election authority certifies the margin of victory in the named House district race by November 3, 2027, determining whether the listed outcome achieved at least 15 percentage points.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 9th District by 27 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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