{
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FXN0YK6LH6",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-cagovpxbece",
  "question": "Will the California Governor Primary margin of victory be greater than 10 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-politics",
    "governor-primary",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "2027-election",
    "electoral-outcomes"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks Xavier Becerra's margin of victory in the 2027 California governor primary. Three Kalshi markets price discrete margin thresholds: 1 point, 3 points, and 5 points. Each resolves via Kalshi staff determination against official California election authority certification. The tiered structure lets traders express graduated conviction on Becerra's winning spread.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FSNLMRM455",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.97
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FSNLMRM455",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FXN0YK6LH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPXBECE-P1",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least 1 percentage points?",
      "description": "Xavier Becerra, 1+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Xavier Becerra, 1+ pts: Official California election authority certification of the named candidate's margin of victory in the governor primary, determined by Kalshi staff against certified results, by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Xavier Becerra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Xavier Becerra runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Xavier Becerra will be summed.\n\nIf Xavier Becerra wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Xavier Becerra loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Xavier Becerra ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Xavier Becerra is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9873.2032,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "governor-primary",
        "margin-of-victory",
        "xavier becerra california",
        "xavier-becerra"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M1NDTG4LJ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FXN0YK6LH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPXBECE-P3",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least 3 percentage points?",
      "description": "Xavier Becerra, 3+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Xavier Becerra, 3+ pts: Official California election authority certification of the named candidate's margin of victory in the governor primary, determined by Kalshi staff against certified results, by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Xavier Becerra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Xavier Becerra runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Xavier Becerra will be summed.\n\nIf Xavier Becerra wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Xavier Becerra loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Xavier Becerra ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Xavier Becerra is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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      "implied_probability": 0.901,
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      "volume_total_usd": 8761.06271,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-00KY6JK881",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FXN0YK6LH6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPXBECE-P5",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least 5 percentage points?",
      "description": "Xavier Becerra, 5+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Xavier Becerra, 5+ pts: Official California election authority certification of the named candidate's margin of victory in the governor primary, determined by Kalshi staff against certified results, by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Xavier Becerra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Xavier Becerra runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Xavier Becerra will be summed.\n\nIf Xavier Becerra wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Xavier Becerra loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Xavier Becerra ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Xavier Becerra is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 169.98520000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "governor-primary",
        "margin-of-victory",
        "xavier becerra california",
        "xavier-becerra"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-FXN0YK6LH6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}