{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-R82458X4M1",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-ga03r",
  "question": "Will Georgia's 3rd District margin of victory be less than 5 percentage points in the next election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections",
    "georgia-politics",
    "election-margin",
    "2027-elections",
    "competitive-race"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican margin of victory in Georgia's 3rd Congressional District House election, closing November 2027. The canonical question prices a binary outcome: whether the margin falls below 5 points. Kalshi structures the same race as discrete strike thresholds, pricing the margin level at 14, 17, 20, 23, 26, 29, 32, 35, and 38 percentage points. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination referencing Georgia's official certified election results.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4RYG8MS9Z0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.7,
    "implied_probability": 0.7
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KNYCB2PD13",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R82458X4M1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GA03R-P14",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Georgia's 3rd District House election be at least 14 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 14+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 14+ pts: Georgia's official election authority certifies the House election results; the margin of victory resolves by the named candidate's vote percentage difference, verified by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Georgia's 3rd District by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "14pts",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia 3rd district",
        "house",
        "margin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6H033B5S28",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R82458X4M1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GA03R-P17",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Georgia's 3rd District House election be at least 17 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 17+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 17+ pts: Georgia's official election authority certifies the House election results; the margin of victory resolves by the named candidate's vote percentage difference, verified by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Georgia's 3rd District by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 17,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "17pts",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia 3rd district",
        "house",
        "margin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-37XQHH55S4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R82458X4M1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GA03R-P20",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Georgia's 3rd District House election be at least 20 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 20+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 20+ pts: Georgia's official election authority certifies the House election results; the margin of victory resolves by the named candidate's vote percentage difference, verified by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Georgia's 3rd District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1012.7800000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "20pts",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia 3rd district",
        "house",
        "margin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4RYG8MS9Z0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R82458X4M1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GA03R-P23",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Georgia's 3rd District House election be at least 23 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 23+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 23+ pts: Georgia's official election authority certifies the House election results; the margin of victory resolves by the named candidate's vote percentage difference, verified by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Georgia's 3rd District by 23 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2760.1,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 23,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "23pts",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia 3rd district",
        "house",
        "margin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C1F99VVM04",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R82458X4M1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GA03R-P26",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Georgia's 3rd District House election be at least 26 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 26+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 26+ pts: Georgia's official election authority certifies the House election results; the margin of victory resolves by the named candidate's vote percentage difference, verified by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Georgia's 3rd District by 26 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1585.1699999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 26,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "26pts",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia 3rd district",
        "house",
        "margin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TMNQ848T34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R82458X4M1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GA03R-P29",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Georgia's 3rd District House election be at least 29 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 29+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 29+ pts: Georgia's official election authority certifies the House election results; the margin of victory resolves by the named candidate's vote percentage difference, verified by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Georgia's 3rd District by 29 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 983.2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 29,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "29pts",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia 3rd district",
        "house",
        "margin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XS297XXPR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R82458X4M1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GA03R-P32",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Georgia's 3rd District House election be at least 32 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 32+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 32+ pts: Georgia's official election authority certifies the House election results; the margin of victory resolves by the named candidate's vote percentage difference, verified by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Georgia's 3rd District by 32 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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