{
  "_notice": {
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-gasend",
  "question": "Will the Georgia Senate election margin of victory be less than 5 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate-election",
    "georgia-politics",
    "electoral-margin",
    "2027-election",
    "democrat-republican"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic margin of victory in Georgia's 2027 U.S. Senate election. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds, from 2 points to 18 points, each resolving independently. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the Democratic vote margin. The Georgia Secretary of State's certified results are the authoritative source, with Kalshi staff determination as the resolution mechanism.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9WLH0Z42C6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.71
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CJYWKWLQB7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P2",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 2 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 2+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 2+ pts: The Georgia Secretary of State's certified election results determine the margin of victory in the U.S. Senate election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.81,
      "implied_probability": 0.81,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1686.5172,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia senate democratic",
        "margin",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9WLH0Z42C6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P4",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 4 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 4+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XQN1RL7537",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P6",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 6 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 6+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.64,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 839.4432,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia senate democratic",
        "margin",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WJ64683VH1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P8",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 8 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 8+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 8+ pts: The Georgia Secretary of State's certified election results determine the margin of victory in the U.S. Senate election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8.4839,
      "volume_total_usd": 1492.0612999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia senate democratic",
        "margin",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4D9Q21SQH1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P10",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 10 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 10+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 10+ pts: The Georgia Secretary of State's certified election results determine the margin of victory in the U.S. Senate election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 479.01099999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia senate democratic",
        "margin",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T28LY1FYP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P12",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 12 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 12+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 12+ pts: The Georgia Secretary of State's certified election results determine the margin of victory in the U.S. Senate election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.15,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 40.967999999999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "democratic",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia senate democratic",
        "margin",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0WVYFSZMY7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P14",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 14 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 14+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 14+ pts: The Georgia Secretary of State's certified election results determine the margin of victory in the U.S. Senate election, resolved by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3.835,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic",
        "election",
        "georgia",
        "georgia senate democratic",
        "margin",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3Z17J9Y2P8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P16",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 16 percentage points?",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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      "tags": [
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        "election",
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        "georgia senate democratic",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 18 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 18+ pts",
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      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by 18 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "volume_total_usd": 10.744,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 18,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "election",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-3295WZKLQ3",
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}