{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L9MF5VX0G2",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-ky04pegall",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary  election be at least 6 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-primary",
    "kentucky-politics",
    "election-margin",
    "2027-election",
    "primary-contests"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Ed Gallrein's margin of victory in the 2026 Kentucky 4th District House Primary. All five markets are Kalshi-listed, each pricing a discrete margin-of-victory tier via Kalshi staff determination. Taken together, the tier structure functions as a continuous distribution over possible vote share spreads. The Kentucky State Board of Elections certifies the authoritative result.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MSB18BWPP1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VT7H44LKR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L9MF5VX0G2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PEGALL-P2",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary election be at least 2 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ed Gallrein, 2+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky State Board of Elections certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 Kentucky's 4th District House Primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ed Gallrein wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Primary  election in Kentucky's 4th District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed.\n\nIf Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>"
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 15753.08,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2pts",
        "ed gallrein kentucky",
        "ky-04",
        "margin",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZPJ1X8QS4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L9MF5VX0G2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PEGALL-P4",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary  election be at least 4 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ed Gallrein, 4+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky State Board of Elections certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 Kentucky's 4th District House Primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ed Gallrein wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Primary  election in Kentucky's 4th District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed.\n\nIf Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>"
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13168.28,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "4pts",
        "ed gallrein kentucky",
        "ky-04",
        "margin",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MSB18BWPP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L9MF5VX0G2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PEGALL-P6",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary  election be at least 6 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ed Gallrein, 6+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky State Board of Elections certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 Kentucky's 4th District House Primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ed Gallrein wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Primary  election in Kentucky's 4th District by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed.\n\nIf Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>"
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18288.96,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "6pts",
        "ed gallrein kentucky",
        "ky-04",
        "margin",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WC1CQ1MRG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L9MF5VX0G2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PEGALL-P8",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary  election be at least 8 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ed Gallrein, 8+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky State Board of Elections certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 Kentucky's 4th District House Primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ed Gallrein wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Primary  election in Kentucky's 4th District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed.\n\nIf Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>"
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1008.1,
      "volume_total_usd": 13034.22,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "8pts",
        "ed gallrein kentucky",
        "ky-04",
        "margin",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NBK526HWN2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L9MF5VX0G2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PEGALL-P10",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary  election be at least 10 percentage points?",
      "description": "Ed Gallrein, 10+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kentucky State Board of Elections certifies the margin of victory in the 2026 Kentucky's 4th District House Primary election.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ed Gallrein wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Primary  election in Kentucky's 4th District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed.\n\nIf Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>"
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 1862.3,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10pts",
        "ed gallrein kentucky",
        "ky-04",
        "margin",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VT7H44LKR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZPJ1X8QS4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MSB18BWPP1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WC1CQ1MRG9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NBK526HWN2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T00:23:50Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-L9MF5VX0G2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}