{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9N11536LR6",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-mesenr",
  "question": "Will the Maine Senate election margin of victory be less than 5 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate-elections",
    "maine-politics",
    "election-margins",
    "2027-elections",
    "electoral-outcomes"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican margin of victory in Maine's 2027 U.S. Senate election. Kalshi structures the event as four strike thresholds: 1, 3, 5, and 7 percentage points. Each tier resolves via Kalshi staff determination using certified results from Maine's official election authority. Together, the strikes form an implied probability distribution over the Republican victory margin.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2PC51G0YJ9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.4
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2PC51G0YJ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9N11536LR6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MESENR-P1",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 1 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 1+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 1+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory in the named Senate election, resolved by Kalshi staff on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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      "volume_total_usd": 2853.444,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "maine",
        "maine senate republican",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TFN028H003",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9N11536LR6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MESENR-P3",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 3 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 3+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 3+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory in the named Senate election, resolved by Kalshi staff on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.34,
      "implied_probability": 0.34,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1452.1740000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "maine",
        "maine senate republican",
        "margin",
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        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2B8QQYPWZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9N11536LR6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MESENR-P5",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 5 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 5+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 5+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory in the named Senate election, resolved by Kalshi staff on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1527.8532,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "maine",
        "maine senate republican",
        "margin",
        "republican",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P4XC8P4LV1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9N11536LR6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MESENR-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 7 percentage points?",
      "description": "Republicans, 7+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Republicans, 7+ pts: The official election authority responsible for certifying results in the referenced geography determines the margin of victory in the named Senate election, resolved by Kalshi staff on November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "maine",
        "maine senate republican",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-9N11536LR6",
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}