{
  "_notice": {
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YTF9WJQ37",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-mn02d",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least 13 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "2027-election",
    "us-house",
    "minnesota-politics",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "electoral-outcomes"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic margin of victory in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District House election, closing November 3, 2027. All nine contracts are listed on Kalshi, each pricing a discrete strike threshold from 1 point to 25 points. The tiered structure lets traders isolate probability mass across the full margin distribution. Kalshi staff determination references the official election authority certifying results in the named geography.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7ZYL4QYBH4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.52
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N4N5Q4VPC3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YTF9WJQ37",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P1",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least 1 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 1+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 1+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography reports the margin of victory by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 2nd District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.958,
      "implied_probability": 0.958,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1880.5539999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2nd district",
        "democratic margin",
        "democratic margin victory",
        "house election",
        "minnesota"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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    {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P4",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least 4 percentage points?",
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      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 2nd District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1665.84,
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        "democratic margin",
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        "house election",
        "minnesota"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DKHBKHHZ45",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YTF9WJQ37",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P7",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least 7 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 7+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 7+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography reports the margin of victory by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 2nd District by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1416.24,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2nd district",
        "democratic margin",
        "democratic margin victory",
        "house election",
        "minnesota"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6406D1NB09",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YTF9WJQ37",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P10",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least 10 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 10+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 10+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography reports the margin of victory by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 2nd District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.69,
      "implied_probability": 0.69,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2231.322,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2nd district",
        "democratic margin",
        "democratic margin victory",
        "house election",
        "minnesota"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YTF9WJQ37",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P13",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least 13 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 13+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 13+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography reports the margin of victory by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 2nd District by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "score": 80,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.52,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3366.9584,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 13,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "democratic margin",
        "democratic margin victory",
        "house election",
        "minnesota"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RQ5L77FFB8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YTF9WJQ37",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P16",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least 16 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 16+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 16+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography reports the margin of victory by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 2nd District by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1206.3401999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 16,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "democratic margin",
        "democratic margin victory",
        "house election",
        "minnesota"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HB7DZZXQH9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3YTF9WJQ37",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P19",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least 19 percentage points?",
      "description": "Democrats, 19+ pts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Democrats, 19+ pts: Official election authority certifying results in the named geography reports the margin of victory by November 3, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 2nd District by 19 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
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